Black knight as a strategic choice? Causes and modes of Russia's support to the authoritarianism in Southern Caucasus

Abstract

Despite recurring elections and the transition to multiparty systems, authoritarianism has re-emerged in the Post-Soviet Space. Along with domestic factors, the external dimension should also be considered to fully understand this regional trend. Scholars depict Russia as a typical ‘black knight’ for democracy. While most of the literature deals with the Kremlin's policies in the ‘new’ Eastern Europe, this article pays attention to Russia's actions in the relatively understudied Southern Caucasus. Specifically, it investigates why and how Moscow tried to thwart democratization in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The diachronic analysis addresses three periods, namely, Yeltsin's presidency, the first Putin presidency and the Putin–Medvedev diarchy. Findings suggest that the Kremlin implemented an increasingly nuanced and intentional black knight strategy in Southern Caucasus, aimed at gaining primacy in the Post-Soviet Space and recognition of its great power status.

Autocracy promotion in Russia’s foreign policy:

“…There have been some stages in which the adoption of the authoritarian model consolidated and went in the direction desired by the regime (as at the end of the 1990s with Kocharian), and there have been other periods in which it took an opposite direction (as with the 2018 velvet revolution). The emulation of the Russian political model has been realized in two ways: through the attempt of Belarus and Armenia to reproduce Russia's higher performances (concerning security, social stability…), thus adopting the same regime type, and through the attempt of band-wagoning to the regional hegemon (Natalizia, 2019). In this context, Russia's influence in its region has created a "permissive space", in which each country finding itself within that area can ignore its democratic commitments being aware that their loyalty to Russia can protect them against any possible interference of the US and the EU.…”

Armenia 2022: Looking for a way out of the Nagorno-Karabakh impasse

“…Third, in a vicious circle between the external and internal domain of Armenian politics, Russia's security guarantor role also took on a domestic dimension, as Moscow came to play the role of democracy's «black knight» [Natalizia 2019] and promoter of «authoritarian stability» [Cameron & Orenstein 2012]. This trend was particularly visible during the Kocharyan administration, when the alliance helped shield the country from the risk of contagion coming from the Colour Revolutions occurring in the post-Soviet space.…”

Authoritarian resurgence: towards a unified analytical framework

“…In this regard, we should separate cases in which a change in the ruling elite occurs from cases in which there is no government turnover. Moreover, when we examine the constellation of actors involved in these processes, we could distinguish domestic from international agents, as Natalizia (2019) correctly points out in his contribution to this collection of research works.…”

“…Russia has been often depicted as a ‘black knight’ for democracy in the post-communist region, but most of the literature focuses on Russia's influence in the so-called ‘new Eastern Europe’ countries. On the contrary, Gabriele Natalizia (2019) investigates how and why the Kremlin has tried to thwart democratization in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia throughout three historical periods, namely, Yeltsin presidency, Putin presidency, and the Medvedev-Putin diarchy. Natalizia (2019) retraces an intentional and nuanced strategy through which Russia has gradually re-gained primacy in the post-Soviet space and recognition of its great power status in the international arena.…”