Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease

Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?

“…In fact, the estimation results in this paper show that expenditure is countercyclical for the high-income group, but its components move in different directions: consumption is procyclical while capital expenditure is countercyclical. Similarly, Villafuerte and Lopez-Murphy (2010) and Arezki and Ismail (2010) indicate that, during oil price declines, governments reduce capital expenditure more than they reduce government consumption. Furthermore, the non-oil primary balance as a dependent variable will measure the injection/use of oil revenue in the economy and the overall level of fiscal effort.…”

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa

“…The recent sharp declines in commodity prices are not unprecedented and their frequent occurrence has led to a large number of studies analyzing the impact of lower commodity prices on economic growth (Deaton and Miller 1995;Dehn 2000), debt (Arezki and Ismail 2013), and conflict (Brückner and Ciccone 2010). However, the literature lacks a systematic empirical analysis of the impact of commodity price shocks on the financial sector of commodity exporters.…”

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa

“…Les fortes baisses des prix des produits de base actuellement observées ne sont pas inédites. Leur fréquence a donné lieu à la réalisation d'un grand nombre d'études qui examinent l'impact du recul des prix des produits de base sur la croissance économique (Deaton et Miller, 1995;Dehn, 2000), la dette (Arezki et Ismail, 2013) et les conflits (Brückner et Ciccone, 2010). Il n'existe, en revanche, aucune étude empirique systématique de l'impact des chocs des cours des matières premières sur le secteur financier des exportateurs de produits de base.…”