BOOS/HIROMB-based marine forecasts in Estonia: Problems, experiences and challenges

Elken, Jüri; Kõuts, Tarmo; Raudsepp, Urmas; Laanemets, Jaan; Lagemaa, Priidik

doi:10.1109/baltic.2006.7266176

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 16 publications

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“…Introduction of numerical sea level forecasts in Estonia was delayed in the official service level until the highest known storm surge occurred in January 2005 at the western coast of Estonia [ 22,23 ]. Operational sea level gauge at Pärnu recorded highest sea level height of + 275 cm, the highest observed so far since the beginning of instrumental observations in 1923.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operational sea level forecasting in Estonia

Lagemaa¹,

Elken²,

Kõuts³

2011

Estonian J. Eng.

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The operational sea level forecasting system in Estonia, based on the HIROMB model forecasts and on 11 online sea level observation stations, is described and validated. The system is operational since 08.08.2005. Statistical analysis for the period 2006 2008 data is performed to investigate the properties of low-frequency sea level error and error estimation of high sea level events. A 7-day backwards moving average filter is the most appropriate for Estonian waters to correct the raw sea level forecast. For the time period 2006 2008 the forecast error of critically high sea level events is ±25 em within ±3 h between the observed and foreeasted maxima. Taylor skill assessment procedures are applied to the data, covering the period 2009-2011. The data is divided into three forecast sub-ranges (low, medium and high sea level), to investigate the possibilities of the online error estimation. Smaller errors are present for medium and low subrange and larger errors for the high sub-range. The necessities for further development are outlined.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operational sea level forecasting in Estonia

Lagemaa¹,

Elken²,

Kõuts³

2011

Estonian J. Eng.

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Performance of operational systems with respect to water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland

et al. 2008

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This paper is devoted to the validation of water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland. Daily forecasts produced by four setups of operational, three-dimensional Baltic Sea oceanographic models are analyzed using statistical means and are compared with water level observations at three Finnish stations located on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The overall conclusion is that the operational systems were skillful in forecasting water level variations during the study period from November 1, 2003, to January 31, 2005. The factors causing differences between the water level forecasts of different models are discussed as well. An important task of operational sea level forecasting services is to provide accurate and early information about extreme water levels, both positive and negative surges. During the study period, two major winter storms occurred which caused coastal flooding in the region. According to our analysis, the operational models forecast the rise of water levels during these events rather successfully. Nowadays, operational forecasts can provide early warnings of extreme water levels at least 1 day in advance, which may be regarded as a minimum requirement for an operational forecasting system. The paper concludes that the models generally performed very well, with over 93% of the hourly water level forecasts found to be within the range of ±15 cm of the observed water levels, and with the timing of the water level peaks accurately predicted. Further discussion and studies dealing with the assessment of the skills of both operational meteorological and oceanographic forecasts, especially in connection with rare surge events, will be necessary. Skill assessment of operational oceanographic models would be relatively easy if acceptable error limits or a quality system was developed for the Baltic Sea operational models.

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