Background: We aimed at minimizing loss of lives in the Covid-19 pandemic in the USA by identifying optimal vaccination strategies during a 100-day period with limited vaccine supplies. While lethality is highest in the elderly, transmission and case numbers are highest in the younger. A strategy of first vaccinating the elderly is widely used, thought to protect the vulnerable, elderly best. Despite lower immunogenicity in the elderly, mRNA vaccines retain high efficacy, implying that in the younger, reduced vaccine doses might suffice, thereby increasing vaccination counts with a given vaccine supply.
Methods: Using published immunogenicity data of the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine, we examined the value of tailored-dose vaccination strategies, using a modeling approach incorporating age-related vaccine immunogenicity, social contact patterns, population structure, Covid-19 case and death rates in the USA in late January 2021. An increase if the number of persons that can be vaccinated and a potential reduction of the individual protective efficacy was accounted for.
Results: Age-tailored dosing strategies reduced cases faster, shortening the pandemic, reducing the delay to reaching <100′000 cases/day from 64 to 30 days and avoiding 25′000 deaths within 100 days in the USA. In an ′elderly first′ vaccination strategy, mortality is higher even in the elderly. Findings were robust with transmission blocking efficacies of reduced dose vaccination between 30% to 90%.
Conclusion: Rapid reduction of Covid-19 case and death rate in the USA in 100 days with a limited vaccine supply is best achieved when personalized, age-tailored dosing for highly effective vaccines is used. Protecting the vulnerable is most effectively achieved by dose tailored vaccination of all population segments, while an ′elderly first′ approach costs more lives, even in the elderly.