Bosnia and Herzegovina Telecommunication Sector Outlook

Abstract

The upcoming privatization of two remaining telecom operators in Bosnia, and not so recent privatization of one of the incumbent, will create dynamic and changing sector environment for all participants. At the same time the investors are scanning the sector trying to find the right approach and the market niche for more competitive start. In our overview we have looked at regulatory status, core services figures, followed by financial overview for incumbent operators in the past decade, as well as mobile users' attitudes in carrier section. What we will show is that sector development and the expansion of consumers' base is far from over. The services offered are still at rudimental level, and the potential owners of incumbent operators as well as new entrants will have considerable room for development. Financial analysis has shown that revenue for all three incumbent operators is stagnating in the last years, while the small private operators are experiencing steady growth. Although BH Telecom is still the largest company in the sector, it dose face slight decline in net profit while its biggest competitor -Telecom Srpske in 2013 had biggest ROE. We find that BH Telecom and Telecom Srpske had unexploited franchise growth and competiveness potential. We assessed the intrinsic value of all three companies stocks by application of Franchise Factor Model and find that BH Telecom stock price is in equilibrium, Telecom Srpske stock is underpriced and Croatian Telecom is stock strongly overpriced. Finally, the analyses of consumers' perspective have revealed existence of network effect in mobile market and the strong competition between two market leaders. In all, BiH telecommunication sector is still in its expanding phase and the potential owners of state operators as well as new entrants will have competitive well regulated market.

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