Bottom-up effects of climate on fish populations: data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder

Pitois, Sophie; Lynam, Christopher P.; Jansen, Teunis; Halliday, N. C.; Edwards, Martin

doi:10.3354/meps09710

Cited by 41 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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“…For the larval stages, uptake rates and half saturation constants of herbivorous zooplankton uptake by fish larvae (s28, s29, s38, s39), together with the proportion of this uptake converted to fish biomass (s80, s81) were identified as influential. Although the direct effects of temperature on fish are well documented, North Sea larval fish populations are probably influenced by climate indirectly through bottom-up effects impacting on plankton availability (Alvarez-Fernandez et al, 2012;Pitois et al, 2012). Therefore the model appears to reflect this distinction through the influence of factors relating to the uptake and conversion of herbivorous zooplankton rather than temperature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The differences observed between the total and first order sensitivity indices of the fishing rates concurred with this, indicating that within the model, fishing was very influential but interactions with other factors did occur to produce the resultant outputs. Previous studies have highlighted the difficulties inherent in identifying possible impacts of environmental change on North Sea fisheries due to the effects that commercial fishing has on demersal and pelagic fish numbers (Pitois et al, 2012). By fixing fishing rates in the StrathE2E model, the impacts of factors associated with environmental change could be further explored to identify their relative importance assessed for the fish stocks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos

Morris

Speirs

Cameron

et al. 2014

Ecological Modelling

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This version is available at https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/45100/ Strathprints is designed to allow users to access the research output of the University of Strathclyde. Unless otherwise explicitly stated on the manuscript, Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Please check the manuscript for details of any other licences that may have been applied. You may not engage in further distribution of the material for any profitmaking activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute both the url (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/) and the content of this paper for research or private study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge.Any correspondence concerning this service should be sent to the Strathprints administrator: strathprints@strath.ac.ukThe Strathprints institutional repository (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk) is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs. It has been developed to disseminate open access research outputs, expose data about those outputs, and enable the management and persistent access to Strathclyde's intellectual output.Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos AbstractComprehensive analysis of parameter and driver sensitivity is key to establishing the credibility of models representing complex systems. This is especially so for models of natural systems where experimental manipulation of the real-world to provide controlled validation data is not possible.End-to-end ecosystem models (nutrients to birds and mammals) of marine ecosystems fall into this category with applications for evaluating the effects of climate change and fishing on nutrient fluxes and the abundances of flora and fauna. Here we present results of both 'one-at-a-time' (OAT) and variance based global sensitivity analyses (GSA) of the fish and fishery aspects of StrathE2E, an end-to-end ecosystem model of the North Sea. The sensitivity of the model was examined with respect to internal biological parameters, and external drivers related to climate and human activity.The OAT Morris method was first used to screen for factors most influential on model outputs. The Sobol GSA method was then used to calculate quantitative sensitivity indices. The results indicated that the fish and shellfish components of the model (demersal and pelagic fish, filter/deposit and scavenge/carnivore feeding benthos) were influenced by different sets of factors. Harvesting rates were directly influential on demersal and pelagic fish biomasses. Suspension/deposit feeding benthos were directly sensitive to changes in temperature, while the temperature acted indirectly on pelagic fish through the connectivity between model components of the food web. Biomass conversion efficiency was the most important factor for scavenge/carnivorous feeding benthos.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos

Morris

Speirs

Cameron

et al. 2014

Ecological Modelling

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“…Firstly we attempt to identify regimes with defined environmental conditions and second, to identify potential linkages between the environment and fish larvae. We then compare our results with those obtained from the North Sea by Pitois et al (2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…The value of the CPR fish larvae dataset, with its extensive spatio-temporal coverage, has been recently demonstrated with studies on longterm changes over decadal scales in the abundance and distribution of fish larvae in relation to physical and biological factors (Pitois et al, 2012), on blue-whiting populations in the North Atlantic (Pointin and Payne, 2014), and on the use of a larval index to inform stock assessments for sandeels (Lynam et al, 2013) and mackerel (Jansen et al, 2012b) in the North Sea. Analyses in the North Sea (Pitois et al, 2012) suggest that the larvae of clupeids, sandeels, dab and gadoids seem to be affected mainly by changes in the plankton ecosystem via bottom-up effects, while the larvae of migratory species such as mackerel respond more to hydrographic influences. Here we use a similar approach to this previous work and focus on the larvae of mackerel collected by the CPR in the west and southwest of the British Isles.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of environmental variability on Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus larval abundance to the west of the British Isles

Pitois

Jansen

Pinnegar

2015

Continental Shelf Research

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The value of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) fish larvae dataset, with its extensive spatio-temporal coverage, has been recently demonstrated with studies on long-term changes over decadal scales in the abundance and distribution of fish larvae in relation to physical and biological factors in the North Sea. We used a similar approach in the west and southwest area of the UK shelf and applied a principal component analysis (PCA) using 7 biotic and abiotic parameters, combined with Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA), to investigate the impact of environmental changes in the west and southwest area of the UK shelf on mackerel larvae during the period 1960–2004. The analysis revealed 3 main periods of time (1960–1968; 1969–1994; 1995–2004) reflecting 3 different ecosystem states. The results suggest a transition from an ecosystem characterized by low temperature, high salinity, high abundances of zooplankton and the larger phytoplankton groups, to a system characterized by higher temperature, lower salinities, lower abundances of zooplankton and larger phytoplankton and higher abundances of the small phytoplankton species. Analysis revealed a very weak positive correlation between the Second principal component and mackerel larvae yearly abundance, attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results presented here are in broad accord with recent investigations that link climatic variability and dynamics of mackerel reproduction. However, the growing body of literature that documents statistical correlations between environment and mackerel needs to be supplemented by local process studies, to gain more insight and to be able to predict mackerel response to climate change scenarios. Utilising the strength of the CPR dataset, namely its unique temporal coverage, in an analysis where other data (such as egg surveys) are drawn in to compensate for the spatial issues could prove to be the way forward

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“…In pelagic ecosystems, zooplankton occupy a central position in the food web, often controlling smaller organisms by grazing and providing food for many important larval and adult fish and ultimately seabirds (Pitois et al, 2012;Lauria et al, 2013). Their short life cycle render zooplankton sensitive to environmental changes (Edwards and Richardson, 2004;Beaugrand et al, 2010;Harris and Edwards, 2014;Serranito et al, 2016), and their position in the food chain between primary producer (bottom-up control) and fish (top-down control), make them a prerequisite for an understanding of ecosystem approach to management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of a Cost-Effective Integrated Plankton Sampling and Imaging Instrument with Traditional Systems for Mesozooplankton Sampling in the Celtic Sea

et al. 2018

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Three plankton collection methods were used to gather plankton samples in the Celtic Sea in October 2016. The Plankton Image Analysis (PIA) system is a high-speed color line scan-based imaging instrument, which continuously pumps water, takes images of the passing particles, and identifies the zooplankton organisms present. We compared and evaluated the performance of the PIA against the Continuous Automatic Litter and Plankton Sampler (CALPS) and the traditional ring net vertical haul. The PIA underestimated species abundance compared to the CALPS and ring net and gave an image of the zooplankton community structure that was different from the other two devices. There was, however, good agreement in the spatial distribution of abundances across the three systems. Our study suggests that the image capture and analysis step rather than the sampling method was responsible for the discrepancies noted between the PIA and the other two datasets. The two most important issues appeared to be differences in sub-sampling between the PIA system and the other two devices, and blurring of specimen features due to limited PIA optical depth of field. A particular advantage of the CALPS over more traditional vertical sampling methods is that it can be integrated within existing multidisciplinary surveys at little extra cost without requiring additional survey time. Additionally, PIA performs automatic image acquisition and it does remove the need to collect physical preserved samples for subsequent analysis in the laboratory. With the help of an expert taxonomist the system in its current form can also integrate the sampling and analysis steps, thus increasing the speed, and reducing the costs for zooplankton sampling in near real-time. Although the system shows some limitation we believe that a revised PIA system will have the potential to become an important element of an integrated zooplankton monitoring program.

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Bottom-up effects of climate on fish populations: data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder

Cited by 41 publications

References 97 publications

Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos

Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos

The impact of environmental variability on Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus larval abundance to the west of the British Isles

Comparison of a Cost-Effective Integrated Plankton Sampling and Imaging Instrument with Traditional Systems for Mesozooplankton Sampling in the Celtic Sea

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