Bounded volatility in the Dutch electoral battlefield: A panel study on the structure of changing vote intentions in the Netherlands during 2006–2010

The Rise of the Populist Radical Right in Western Europe

“…In the past, most voters remained loyal to one single political party, with which they identified strongly. Today voters in virtually all Western European countries increasingly switch between parties from one election to the next (Drummond 2006;Van der Meer et al 2012). Without this increased volatility, the success of PRR parties would have been impossible.…”

If I recall correctly. An event history analysis of forgetting and recollecting past voting behavior

“…Voters' choice set increases with every additional party under consideration, and so does the likelihood of inaccurate recall. The number of parties that voters considered to vote for is often smaller than the number of times that they changed: many voters shift back and forth between two or three parties (Van der Meer et al 2011). However, switching among three or more parties is likely to affect recall accuracy even more strongly than repeated switching between two parties.…”

“…However, despite a bias toward left-wing parties, we found no bias in the direction in which the respondents' voting intentions change, which would be the prime concern: weighting respondents on the basis of their reported vote at the 2006 elections (relative to the actual 2006 election outcome), the outcome of the 2010 elections (in vote share per party) correlates strongly (r = .98) with the outcome according to the reported 2010 votes in the 1VOP, as do the changes in election outcomes (r = .98) (cf. Van der Meer et al 2011). Moreover, the data set comprises a wide variety of respondents that allow for robustness checks (cf.…”

Grenzen der Selektivität: Kann der Selective-exposure-Ansatz komplementäre und komplexe Nutzungsmuster erklären?

“…Zugleich stellt sich auch die Frage nach der Messbarkeit von Präferen-zen und Prädispositionen: So lässt sich politische Orientierung an Stelle einer einfachen Links-rechts-Skala vielleicht besser auf einer mehrdimensionalen Skala messen, wobei man beispielsweise zwischen einer sozioökonomischen und einer sozio-kulturellen Dimension unterscheiden könnte (Curtice & Bryson, 2012;van der Meer, Lubbe, van Elsas, Elff, & van der Brug, 2012). Ebenso greift die hier verwendete Operationalisierung von entertainment preference möglicherweise zu kurz, und thematische Spezialinteressen, wie Sunstein (2001Sunstein ( , 2007 sie als treibende Kraft hinter Selektionsentscheidungen sieht, wurden im Rahmen des vorliegenden Beitrags gar nicht thematisiert.…”