Bovine Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease?

Big decisions based on small numbers: Lessons from BSE

“…Brown (3) confessed 'It now appears I was wrong' and commented on 'the possible failure of the scientific pundits (including me) to forsee a potential medical catastrophe'. Gore's imagination was unconstrained (19). She announced 'Let us have done with misleading the profession, the public, and the press with unqualified `no evidence of statements.…”

“…All the calves were to be observed for 7 years to see whether the offspring of BSE+ve dams were more likely to develop BSE than the offspring of BSE-ve dams. Following 88 the March 1996 statement by the Secretary of State for Health, Gore (19) demanded that 'The ongoing study of possible vertical transmission in 315 paired calves, now in its seventh year, should be unblinded'. In the event, the code was broken in the summer of 1996, when only 273 pairs of animals had reached 7 years of age and the experiment still had 6 months to run.…”

Risk to human populations is remote

“…A link between the two disease raises the possibility (even if not the probability) of risk to large numbers of people 1. Indeed, the standardised mortality ratios for deaths due to Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease reported to the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys during the 15 years 1979-93 show a significant excess in 1992 (χ 2 =11.67, P<0.01) and the interval 1987-93 (χ 2 =4.29, P<0.05).…”

Study shows need for better communication between government and doctors

“…It also shows the need for vibrant public health leadership and debate,4 which are necessary if consumers are to have confidence in official communiques. When these are absent the media will gladly fill the vacuum.…”