Box–Jenkins Methodology Application to Improve Crude Oil Production Forecasting: Case Study in a Colombian Field

Bello-Angulo, David; Duarte, Carlos Alfonso Mantilla; Páez, Erik Giovany Montes; Guerrero-Martin, Camilo Andrés

doi:10.1007/s13369-021-05997-7

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…In this case, impact mitigation strategies are divided into two categories. The first involves emission control technologies, such as low-emission burners and capture devices-for example, selective catalytic reduction options for NOx [13,14]. The second is minimum distances.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Potential Environmental Risks in the Hydraulic Fracturing Operation in the “La Luna” Formation in Colombia

Guerrero-Martin,

Szklo

2024

Sustainability

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This article presents an in-depth analysis of potential environmental risks associated with hydraulic fracturing operations within the “La Luna” formation in Colombia. Using the Conesa methodology, it assesses the environmental impacts of unconventional reservoir production in Colombia, including water usage, chemical additives, air emissions, and the potential for groundwater contamination. This study incorporates comprehensive data on geological characteristics, operational procedures, and environmental conditions specific to the region. This analysis highlights the need for a proactive approach to managing potential environmental risks associated with hydraulic fracturing in Colombia. The findings underscore the importance of implementing robust regulatory measures, comprehensive monitoring systems, and the industry’s best practices to mitigate and prevent adverse environmental impacts. This research contributes to the ongoing global dialogue on the environmental implications of hydraulic fracturing in regions with sensitive ecological conditions. The environmental impacts of unconventional reservoirs are widely recognized as a general consensus; however, the absence of applied studies with the rigor of an explicit methodology in Andean countries highlights the need for specific research in this region. This article addresses this gap by proposing a detailed and structured methodology to assess and mitigate environmental impacts in unconventional reservoirs. Emphasizing the importance of knowing the characteristics of reservoir fluids, this research highlights that this critical information is only revealed by drilling exploration wells and PVT (pressure, volume, and temperature) analysis. Obtaining this data is crucial for shaping specific mitigation measures, thus allowing for the formulation of a robust environmental management plan tailored to the conditions of the reservoirs in the Andean region. This precise and contextualized approach contributes to closing the knowledge gap and promotes more sustainable practices in the exploitation of unconventional reservoirs in this specific geographical context. The methodology used in this study proved its effectiveness by accurately quantifying the risks associated with each of the environmental alterations inherent to the hydraulic fracturing process in the La Luna formation. The results obtained allowed for the identification of the critical points most susceptible to environmental impacts, serving as a solid basis for the elaboration of an environmental management plan. This strategic approach not only enabled the delineation of specific mitigation measures but also facilitated the selection of the most appropriate locations for the implementation of the plan, maximizing the effectiveness of corrective actions. It is noteworthy that the successful application of the Conesa methodology in this unconventional reservoir context evidences the versatility and applicability of this approach, consolidating it as a valuable tool for environmental assessment and effective planning in the hydraulic fracturing industry.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is an unconventional reservoir in Colombia. The La Luna unconventional oil production field, located in the Middle Magdalena Valley (VMM) basin, is the third largest unconventional reservoir in the western hemisphere in terms of volume of reserves and potential for oil and natural gas extraction [12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Potential Environmental Risks in the Hydraulic Fracturing Operation in the “La Luna” Formation in Colombia

Guerrero-Martin,

Szklo

2024

Sustainability

Self Cite

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“…This value represents the available energy on the gas as an ideal gas behavior; to obtain the real LHV, the Z factor has to be determined. The pseudocritical pressure and temperature of the gas mixture were estimated with Kay's method [40,41], and due to the presence of H 2 S and CO 2 , these values were corrected under Wichert and Aziz's equations [41]. Then, the pseudoreduced properties were calculated under the initial conditions of pressure and temperature of the raw gas (39.69 psia and 77 • F) and obtained a value of 0.057 and 1.369 as the pseudoreduced pressure and temperature, respectively.…”

Section: Lower Heating Value Vmm Basin Gasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Process Optimization of the Flaring Gas for Field Applications

et al. 2022

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During petroleum industry operations, burning flammable gas components in the flaring stacks is common, normally a symbol for stable production, but flaring these components creates harmful emissions for the environment. This flaring gas has components with a high quantity of heating power, an important measurement that quantifies the energy that can potentially be obtained from this wasted resource. This paper aims to evaluate the energy usage of the flaring gas, estimating the possible energy produced with this usable resource by modeling a treatment and energy generation process employing the Aspen HYSYS® simulator. The flaring gas is characterized using different models and compositional ranges of natural gas to know what kind of gas it is and identify what type of equipment could be used for treatment and energy generation from this resource. After the gas characterization, the selection of the equipment of treatment and energy generation is necessary; this is done using a multicriteria analysis by taking into consideration the variables of gas composition, electrical efficiency, economic performance, and GHG emissions, ensuring to generate the greatest amount of energy possible to be produced with this flaring gas. By increasing the LHV, 0.95 MMSCF of flared gas of an oilfield in the VMM basin produced 5133 kW, enough energy to supply gas treatment and power generation facilities and four times the total gross consumption energy of a model oilfield in the basin, while the CO2 emissions were reduced 11.4%, and cost savings using this resource instead of diesel were obtained. In conclusion, to minimize flaring and to recover and reuse these waste components, looking for alternatives for the use of this gas-like power generation is an important option that reduces pollutants emission, gives a new source of fuel, and gives an energy usefulness to this wasted resource.

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“…These activities collectively contribute to gathering information to identify potential areas for oil extraction. The primary objective of exploratory wells is to confirm the geological model of previously identified structures, utilize geophysical models, discover oil, and evaluate the potential of target formations [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Environmental Sustainability through a Weighting Matrix in the Oil and Gas Industry

et al. 2023

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In the oil sector, various strategies are applied to mitigate harmful effects on the environment. These strategies include, among others, compensation plans, the measurement and control of the carbon footprint and/or water footprint, the recovery of waste from activities and processes, and Environmental Management Systems (EMS). An EMS provides a formal framework that enables more efficient work on environmental issues, thereby improving performance. It aims to raise awareness of the environmental impacts associated with the oil industry in different areas through the use of weighting matrices. Additionally, it seeks to conduct sustainable studies and optimize the direct activities involved in the exploitation of hydrocarbons as a natural resource. Factors considered in decision making include ensuring that the strategy does not compromise the well-being of future generations, has economic viability, and does not hinder any oil sector activities such as exploration, drilling, production, or processing of derivatives. The purpose of this is that it allows for the creation of decision matrices based on weighting methodologies that outline possible correlations between specific activities of the oil sector such as water use, effects on soils and landscapes, greenhouse gas emissions, solid waste, liquid effluents, hazardous waste, and toxic waste, among others. The decision matrices can also help elucidate the relationship of these activities with mitigation strategies to provide a decision-making tool for environmental management plans so that activities are implemented in a way that can mitigate impacts on water, soil, and air resources. The results of this study were classified using a traffic light matrix, based on the level of technical congruence, using an optimal (green), regular (yellow), medium (orange), and at-risk (red) scale. The environmental impact of “alteration of the geoform of the land” was positioned in the at-risk category due to its assessment by experts in relation to the activity of “land adaptation”. In the medium category, a total of 23 impacts were identified, while 10 impacts fell into the regular category. These results were evaluated in the context of the environmental, social, and economic sustainability of the oil industry.

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Box–Jenkins Methodology Application to Improve Crude Oil Production Forecasting: Case Study in a Colombian Field

Cited by 9 publications

References 6 publications

Analysis of Potential Environmental Risks in the Hydraulic Fracturing Operation in the “La Luna” Formation in Colombia

Analysis of Potential Environmental Risks in the Hydraulic Fracturing Operation in the “La Luna” Formation in Colombia

Process Optimization of the Flaring Gas for Field Applications

Analysis of Environmental Sustainability through a Weighting Matrix in the Oil and Gas Industry

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