Brazilian’s structural change and economic performance: structuralist comments on macroeconomics policies

Abstract

Este estudo avalia o impacto das políticas macroeconômicas sobre o lado real da economia brasileira. Apresentamos um modelo estruturalista de crescimento com base em Rada (2007) para investigar o recente desempenho econômico do Brasil. A matriz de contabilidade social para o Brasil em 2006 serve de base para o modelo. Nós investigamos os efeitos de curto / médio prazo de quatro exercícios de simulação: um aumento no investimento autônomo (espíritos animais), um aumento nos salários formais, uma depreciação da taxa de câmbio, e um aumento do crescimento da produtividade do trabalho. Os resultados sugerem que a economia brasileira segue um regime de crescimento fracamente puxado pelos lucros. Nesse sentido, apenas políticas macroeconômicas que aumentam o investimento autônomo e a produtividade do trabalho podem estimular a economia.Palavras-chave: Modelos estruturalistas; economias com excedente de trabalho; regimes alavancados por lucros/salários. AbstractThis article evaluates the impact of macroeconomic policies on the real side of the Brazilian economy. We present a Structuralist model in growth terms based on Rada (2007) to investigate the recent economic performance of Brazil. The Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil in 2006 serves as a benchmark for our model. We investigate the short/medium term effects of four simulation exercises: a rise in autonomous investment (animal spirits), an increase in wages, a exchange rate depreciation, and a rise in labour productivity growth. The results suggest that the Brazilian economy is weakly profit-led. In this vein, only macroeconomic policies that increase autonomous investment and labour productivity can stimulate the economy.

Modeling for Green Growth: Environmental Policy in a Dualistic Peripheral Economy

“…2 Structuralist models, which focus on the role of demand to understand structural transformation, also provide examples of formal and informal production structures in developing economies. Rada and von Armin (2014) and Morrone (2016) performed studies in India and Brazil, respectively. They highlighted the existence of formal and informal production activities with differentiated productivity levels, and emphasized the role of the informal sector in supplying the reservoir of labor for understanding the complexity of structural transformation dynamics in a middleincome developing economy.…”