No study has evaluated the performance of BRCA1/2 mutations prediction models in male breast cancer (MBC) series. Although rare, MBC deserves attention because male and female breast cancers share many characteristics, including the involvement of genetic predisposition factors such as BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations. Indeed, the occurrence of MBC is a commonly used criterion to select families for BRCA mutation testing. We evaluated the performance and clinical effectiveness of four different predictive models in a population-based series of 102 Italian MBC patients characterized for BRCA1/2 mutations. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were calculated for each risk model at the 10% threshold. The area under the ROC (AUC) curves and its corresponding asymptotic 95% CIs were calculated as a measure of the accuracy. In our study, the BRCAPRO version 5.0 had the highest combination of sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV for the combined probability and for the discrimination of BRCA2 mutations. In individuals with negative breast-ovarian cancer family history, BRCAPRO 5.0 reached a high discriminatory capacity (AUC¼0.92) in predicting BRCA2 mutations and showed values of sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV of 0.5, 0.98, 0.97 and 0.67, respectively, for the combined probability. BRCAPRO version 5.0 can be particularly useful in dealing with non-familial MBC, a circumstance that often represents a challenging situation in genetic counseling.
INTRODUCTIONSeveral models have been developed to assess the pre-test probability of identifying BRCA1/2 germline mutations in individuals at risk for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer. Widely used prediction models mainly include empirical risk assessment models, which predict the mutation probability based on variables describing personal or familial cancer history, such as Myriad II and Ontario Family History Assessment Tool (FHAT), 1,2 and Mendelian models that predict the mutation probability based on penetrance and allelic frequencies of inherited alleles, such as BRCAPRO and the Italian Consortium (IC) model, a country-customized version of the BRCAPRO model. [3][4][5][6] Recent studies carried out on various series of familial female breast cancers show that these models perform similarly. 7-9 However, differences in performance can be observed depending on racial/ethnic groups. 10,11 Thus, there is a need to develop an improved and broadly applicable version of risk assessment models. 12,13 To the best of our knowledge, no study has evaluated the performance of BRCA1/2 mutation prediction models in male breast cancer (MBC) series. MBC shares many similarities with female breast cancer, including the involvement of genetic predisposition factors such as BRCA1/2 mutations. 14 In all, 4-40% of MBC cases are estimated to result from BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations, BRCA2 mutations being more common. 15 Approximately 20% of all MBC patients