Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results

Batool, Irem; Sieg, Gernot

doi:10.1007/s11127-009-9443-x

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 32 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The relationship is remarkably similar in many other countries. In Germany, for example, a recent study of post-WWII election results shows that a 1% change in income produces a 2% change in party vote in national elections (Bartool & Sleg, 2009). A 2006 article on Turkish elections between 1950 and 2004 shows similar results (Akarca & Tamsel, 2006).…”

Section: Introduction and Theorymentioning

confidence: 96%

Pipeline Politics: Russian Energy Sanctions and the 2010 Ukrainian Elections

Newnham

2013

Journal of Eurasian Studies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In early 2010, the ‘Orange Revolution’ in the Ukraine came to an end. The pro-Western President, Viktor Yushchenko, was replaced by the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych. This paper argues that Russian energy sanctions helped pave the way for Yanukovych's election. The Kremlin undermined the Ukrainian economy by exploiting the country's dependence on Russian oil and gas, imposing harsh price increases and financial terms and even cutting off supplies in 2006 and 2009. In the end, I argue, these measures fit the ‘classic model’ of economic sanctions: impose pain until the population turns against its government and removes it. Uniquely, however, this paper links sanctions to the long-standing literature on elections in the U.S. and other democracies which shows how economic decline influences voting behavior. A certain level of sanctions may cause a predictable change in election outcomes in the targeted state. This opens, I believe, an important new potential avenue in research on sanctions.

show abstract

Section: Introduction and Theorymentioning

confidence: 96%

Pipeline Politics: Russian Energy Sanctions and the 2010 Ukrainian Elections

Newnham

2013

Journal of Eurasian Studies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…(2011) suggest that government expenditure is positively associated with the deficit, aligning with the findings of (Anwar & Ahmad, 2012). Moreover, Batool and Sieg (2009) investigated the political impacts of the budget deficits and modelled elections and quality of democracy to explore the relationship between the political factors and Budeget Deficit.They concluded that the quality of democracy has positive and significant impact on reducing the budget deficit where., the effects of elections in the long run are insignificant. Similar findings of the relationship of budget deficit and the role of corruption and weak institutions were unveiled by the Ullah and Baber (2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The author also recommended a policy that suggests that consolidated public sector deficit should be used in research instead of national government fiscal balance as a dependent variable while the tax management system should be improved strictly. Batool and Sieg (2009) estimated the behavior of budget deficit with election using the annual dataset from 1973 to 2009. They found election year increases the budget deficit due to net government budgetary borrowings and borrowing from the banking sector.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Budget Deficits in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis of The Impact of Economic Political and Institutional Factors

Nauman,

Ahmad

2024

Pak. J. Humanit. Soc. Sci

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article aims to provide a thorough empirical examination of the budget deficit of Pakistan, spanning a period of four decades from 1976 to 2023. In order to fulfill the objective of the study, a wide range of economic, political, and institutional variables have been extensively examined. The ARDL technique to cointegration has been employed due to the time series structure of the variables. The objective of this article is to examine the long-term correlation between the budget deficit and its several drivers, such as inflation, debt services, economic expansion, and government size. The study's findings offer important insight into the dynamic connections between the budget deficit and its different determining factors. In Pakistan, inflation has become a major and harmful factor contributing to the budget deficit. The data demonstrates that a continuous increase in prices has resulted in a higher budget deficit. Furthermore, empirical evidence indicates that a significant portion of the deficit that exists is attributed to debt servicing charges. This highlights the importance of implementing effective regulations to control debt. Economic development exerts a positive and major impact on the management of budget deficit. In the case of Pakistan, a higher growth rate is correlated with a lower budget deficit. Moreover, this size of government has an adverse impact on the budget deficit. This demonstrates the necessity for the effective management of public finances. Corruption has an insignificant impact on the increase of the budget deficit in Pakistan. Moreover, the relationship between the political variables and budget deficit is not significant. The study fails to identify the relationship between the elections and democratic processes. This finding is unanticipated and the cause of rejection of one of the main hypothesis of the study. This may be attributed to the fact that the concerns of the political factors may be comparatively minor as compared to the economic ones. Keeping in view the findings of the current study and the previously mentioned variables, therefore this study provides an important insight into the dynamic relationship between the budget deficit and others economic, institutional and political factors. The findings of this study has generated fresh avenues for the future research, especially for the examinations of the impact of political factors because, this hypothesis has been rejected in our study.

show abstract

“…With respect to Germany, the literature on VP functions has majorily taken place at the macro level (Frey and Garbers (1972), Kirchgässner (1974), Kirchgässner (1985Kirchgässner ( , 1986, Kirchgäss-ner (1991), Feld and Kirchgässner (2000), Batool and Sieg (2009)). Most authors find a significant effect of economic conditions on government popularity, but the relationship sometimes gets "lost" (Kirchgässner, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German microdata

Enkelmann¹

2013

Empir Econ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may AbstractThis is one of the first studies to estimate a popularity function at the micro-level. Using German micro-level data (GGSS/ALLBUS) for the years 1991, 1992, 1998, and 2008, we show that a positive assessment of the economy significantly improves government popularity while negative evaluations decrease satisfaction with the government. Voters take the (current and expected) national and personal economic situation into account. We find no evidence for a grievance asymmetry, i.e. voters punish the government for a bad economy but also reward them in good times. Finally, we show that popularity functions are only very crude proxies for vote functions, with the latter being mostly driven by party identification. JEL:D72, H11

show abstract

Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results

Abstract: Bread and Peace model, Elections, Vote share, Real per capita disposable income growth, E6, H11, P16,

Cited by 8 publications

References 32 publications

Pipeline Politics: Russian Energy Sanctions and the 2010 Ukrainian Elections

Pipeline Politics: Russian Energy Sanctions and the 2010 Ukrainian Elections

Budget Deficits in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis of The Impact of Economic Political and Institutional Factors

Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German microdata

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About