Breaking the chain: How arrests reduce the probability of near repeat crimes

Abstract

Objectives: Near repeat patterns have been identified for a host of different crimes, but effective strategies to reduce near repeats have had more variable results. This study identifies near repeat crime patterns in Dallas, Texas and examines the effects of an arrest on reducing the probability of future crime. Method: Using open source crime data from the Dallas Police Department from July 2014 through June 2018, we identified near repeat patterns for shootings, interpersonal robberies, residential burglaries, and thefts from motor vehicles. Logistic regression models were used to test the effect of an arrest on reducing near repeat crimes; controls for geographic, demographic, and temporal factors were included in each model. Results: Near repeat calculations suggest violent crime clustered closely in time and space, with property crime dispersed over larger spatial and temporal dimensions. Across all four crime types, findings suggest arrests resulted in 20% to 40% reductions in a near repeat follow up crime.Conclusions: In line with past research on shootings, arrests reduced the likelihood of subsequent crimes. This suggests policing strategies to increase arrests may be a fruitful way to reduce near repeat crime patterns.Code to replicate the analysis can be found at:https://www.dropbox.com/sh/72q0i7wm60ndqve/AABgFB8zwGHG6xjExvaD01EGa?dl=0.

Open drug markets, vulnerable neighbourhoods and gun violence in two Swedish cities

“…These numbers are approaching the level of risk that could warrant directed efforts at prevention even for a police force that is stretched thin. Targeted efforts to achieve firearms arrests have for instance been found to reduce gun violence in Philadelphia (Wheeler et al, 2019;Wyant et al, 2012), and although the effect is fairly short and/or small it may be worth the effort if the risk for a shooting is substantially higher than it normally is. While the rate of gun violence, and the rate of following incidents, was substantially lower in Stockholm county, it may be motivated to implement proactive efforts against gun violence and to disruption of criminal activity there as well.…”

“…As noted by Wells et al (2012) understanding why some locations have elevated levels of near-repeat shootings would be of both practical and theoretical value. The practical aspect is highlighted by prior studies showing that an arrest reduces the likelihood of a follow-up event (Wheeler, Riddell, & Haberman, 2019;Wyant, Taylor, Ratcliffe, & Wood, 2012). Thus, it is of particular importance to make arrests in incidents with higher likelihoods of a follow up, to reduce subsequent violence, which in turn means it is of importance to identify indicators for shooting events with a high risk of follow ups.…”