Summary Exposure of the breast to ionising radiation increases the risk of breast cancer, especially among young women. However, some issues remain controversial, for instance the shape of the dose-response curve and the expression of time-related excess. The main purpose of this report was to examine the dose-response curves for radiation-induced breast cancer formulated according to radiobiological target theories. Another purpose was to analyse the time-related excess of breast cancer risk after exposure when dose and age at first exposure were held constant. Breast cancer incidence was analysed in a cohort of 3090 women diagnosed with benign breast disease during (median age 37 years). Of these, 1216 were treated with radiation therapy. The dose range was 0-50 Gy (mean 5.8 Gy). The incidence rate as function of dose was analysed using a linear-quadratic Poisson regression model. Cell-killing effects and other modifying effects were incorporated through additional log-linear terms. Additive and multiplicative models were compared in estimating the time-related excess. The analysis, which was based on 278 breast cancer cases, showed a linear dose-response relationship at low to medium dose levels with a cell-killing effect of 5% Gy-' (95% confidence interval 2-9%). For a given absorbed dose and age at first exposure the time-related excess was proportional to the background rates with a suggestion that the excess remains throughout life.Keywords: ionising radiation; breast cancer; cohort study; dose-response; time-response It is well known that exposure of the breast to ionising radiation increases the risk of subsequent breast cancer, especially among young women (Baral et al., 1977; Land et al., 1980;Shore et al., 1986;Hildreth et al., 1989;Miller et al., 1989;Boice et al., 1991;Tokunaga et al., 1994). According to radiobiological target theories, the cancer risk is expected to increase approximately linearly at low doses with an upward curvature at medium dose levels (UNSCEAR, 1993). Simultaneously there is a potential competing effect of cell killing that should negatively modify the response at high dose levels (UNSCEAR, 1993).The main purpose of this report is to present statistical analyses of models for dose-response curves of, the mentioned type. The data were from a previously described cohort study (Mattsson et al., 1993). The cohort consisted of 3090 women who presented with clinical signs and symptoms of benign breast disease from the 1920s until the 1950s. Of these, 1216 were treated with radiotherapy. The absorbed dose ranged from 0 to about 50 Gy.When estimating the lifetime excess risk of radiationinduced breast cancer it is important to determine the risk pattern over time since exposure and/or by attained age (UNSCEAR, 1988;BEIR-V, 1990
Materials and methods
MaterialsThe patients, methods of follow-up, radiation techniques, methods of determination of absorbed dose, absorbed doses and results focusing on age at first exposure and time since first exposure were published in a previous repo...