Brexit and its economic consequences

Abstract

As the formal process of Brexit has already started, there is much uncertainty about Brexit's impacts on Britain's social, political and economic future. This paper examines the economic impact. After briefly discussing some significant EU treaties that serve as the background materials, it presents the key arguments advocated by the leave and remain camps. The economic impact depends critically on the negotiation outcomes. Aside from the debate on the divorce costs, there are numerous issues that must be negotiated, such as immigration, trade in goods, services, agriculture, fisheries and financial regulations. We discuss various scenarios of possible new trade regimes, resulting in different impacts on the UK economy. With each side having its bargaining chips to play, the trade‐offs between “give and take” in the negotiation game are analysed. Considering various strategic options, this paper urges rationality and cooperation, especially weighing both sides’ entwined economic interests, in addition to their mutual security, defence, environmental and world concerns. The potential gains and losses in the event where the UK contemplates new trade arrangements with the non‐EU countries are analysed in the Appendix.

Avrupa Birliği Tarihinde Bir Geri Adım: Brexit

“…Ekonomik etkiler konusunda gerçekleştirilen akademik çalışmaların, Brexit sürecindeki bölünmüşlüğün izlerini taşıyor olması dikkat çekicidir. BK'nin AB'den ayrılması durumunda zarar etmesinin kaçınılmaz olduğu, ancak bu zararın şiddetinin AB ile ayrılık sürecinin şartlarına bağlı olarak değişebileceği, pek çok ekonomist tarafından dile getirilmektedir (Chang, 2018(Chang, , s. 2349. Diğer yandan, ayrılma sürecinde BK'nin şiddetli bir ekonomik bunalıma gireceği ve mutlak olarak zarar edeceği söylemine dayanak olarak gösterilen ekonomik analizlerin uygun yönteme dayanmadığını ileri süren ayrılma taraftarı ekonomistler; AB'nin bir başarı öyküsü olmadığını ve kısa süreli olumsuzluklar yaşansa bile BK'nin bu ayrılıktan kesinlikle kazançlı çıkacağını savunmaktadır (Minford, 2019;Bootle vd., 2018).…”

Analyzing Brexit: Implications for the Electricity System of Great Britain

“…Since 48% of the UK's exports go to the European Single Market [53], the impact of restrictions and greater costs in trading with the EU would be considerable. There are indications that the Pound's loss in value could be sustained, as both trade between the UK and the EU in addition to foreign direct investment (FDI) are likely to be adversely affected by Brexit [54][55][56]. By 2030, Ebell and Warren [55] estimated that if the UK follows a Swiss arrangement with the EU, trade between the UK and the EU will be between 13-17% lower than it would have been, had the UK remained in the EU and, if the UK has a World Trade Organization (WTO) arrangement, then trade is estimated to be between 20-30% lower.…”

Irish construction cross border trade and Brexit: Practitioner perceptions on the periphery of Europe

“…The following are possible scenarios for a post Brexit trading regime: A trade deal based on the 'chequers agreement' (negotiated by then UK Prime Minister Theresa May in July 2018) may be signed. This has proved difficult to gain approval from the UK parliament, controversy surrounds the 'Irish back stop' which guarantees that any trade rules will not lead to cheques at the Irish border (Chang 2018). A different trade deal may be struck between the EU and the UK.…”