2019
DOI: 10.1111/1467-923x.12766
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Brexit, the Belfast Agreement and Northern Ireland: Imperilling a Fragile Political Bargain

Abstract: The major impact of the Belfast Agreement was to engineer a peaceful coexistence between nationalism and unionism that involved each bloc recognising it had sufficient power to thwart the political ambitions of the other side, but not enough to push through its own agenda. This paper argues that Brexit seriously damages this peaceful coexistence and could trigger what is termed an Ulster war of attrition in which Northern Ireland becomes entrapped in a political stalemate where each side strives to triumph wit… Show more

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Cited by 10 publications
(6 citation statements)
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References 15 publications
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“…While the DUP was on the defensive, SF emerged from the Irish general election in February as the largest party by votes, and ambitions to lead the government. As Unionists took fright at the Protocol after January 2020, nationalist agitation for a referendum on Irish unity grew (Teague 2019). Greater turmoil was probably delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which, even in NI, dominated popular, political, and media attention.…”
Section: Brexit Borders and Boycottsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…While the DUP was on the defensive, SF emerged from the Irish general election in February as the largest party by votes, and ambitions to lead the government. As Unionists took fright at the Protocol after January 2020, nationalist agitation for a referendum on Irish unity grew (Teague 2019). Greater turmoil was probably delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which, even in NI, dominated popular, political, and media attention.…”
Section: Brexit Borders and Boycottsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The full implications of Brexit for Northern Ireland became increasingly apparent in the period after the referendum. Independent analyses highlighted the severity of Brexit's economic consequences for Northern Ireland (Budd, 2015;Oxford Economics, 2016;Springford, 2015) and concerns about the politically destabilizing impact of Brexit became more pronounced (Connolly & Doyle, 2019;Gormley-Heenan & Aughey, 2017;Teague, 2019). The latter centred on concerns, voiced predominantly by Irish Nationalists, but also shared by the Irish government, business and sectoral interests, and security services in Northern Ireland, about the damaging impact of a hard border between North and South on both the spirit and the practical operation of the provisions and institutions of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.…”
Section: Brexit and Bordersmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The uncertainty regarding the future of the Irish border challenged the post-GFA regime, thus reopening the territorial debates-and nationalist-unionist fractures-in Northern Ireland. The consensus among scholars is that Brexit, particularly a so-called hard Brexit, challenged, undermined and potentially jeopardised the peace process in Northern Ireland (Brewer, 2018;Doyle & Connolly, 2019;Hayward & Murphy, 2018;Teague, 2019). As explained in previous sections, Northern Ireland has experienced territorially driven violence in different periods of the 20th century.…”
Section: Brexit: the Re-territorialisation Of Ireland?mentioning
confidence: 99%