“…A central tenet in the U.S. voting literature is that elections are retrospective (Key, 1966), and there is considerable evidence that voters hold incumbent officeholders accountable for bad outcomes, particularly for poor economic performance (e.g., Alvarez & Nagler, 1995, 1998; Fair, 1978; Fiorina, 1978, 1981; Hibbing & Alford, 1981; Holbrook, Clouse, & Weinschenk, 2011; Kiewiet, 1983; Kramer, 1971; Lewis-Beck & Stegmaier, 2007; Tufte, 1975). Retrospective voting in the United States, however, is complicated by the fact that, in many elections, voters are asked to cast a ballot in multiple contests at different levels of government.…”