Brittle Failure Mechanism of Multiple Locked Patches in a Seismogenic Fault and Exploration of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction

Abstract

This study attempts to reveal the possible linkage between the critical failure‐fracture and creep process of locked patches in a seimogenic fault. It suggests that the ratio of cumulative Benioff strain of the fracture point to that of the start point of accelerating creep on each locked patch depends on the number of locked patches in an exponential rule with a base value 1.48. Prior to the failure of the last locked patch, the critical failure‐fracture of each patch may produce a preshock of intermediate size or larger. And after the failure of the last patch, the main shock would occur. The retrospective predictions to many seismic events demonstrate that this exponential rule can be used to forecast intermediate‐sized preshocks and large main shocks. This method can be applied to efforts of intermediate‐term and short‐term as well as impending earthquake prediction. The value 1.48 is very likely a universal constant that is indicative of the generation processes of intermediate‐sized or larger preshocks and main shocks. At last, this paper discusses some controversial issues in research of earthquake prediction and proves the applicability of this method from perspectives of theory and technology.

New quantitative displacement criteria for slope deformation process: From the onset of the accelerating creep to brittle rupture and final failure

“…(14), there exist three points, i.e., 0, 1, and 1−0:5 1 2 m −1 , where p 1 (n + 1) is equal to p 1 (n) for each shape parameter m. According to the renormalization group theory, 0 and 1 are stable fixed points, which represent completely stable and completely unstable states, respectively, while the critical point p à ¼ 1−0:5 1 2 m −1 is an unstable fixed point, i.e., a phase transition point, where the state changes from stable to unstable ( Figure 6). As suggested by Qin et al (2010b) and Xue et al (2014b), it is thought that the critical point p ⁎ corresponds to the concept of the critical probability as mentioned in Section 3.1. Thus, we have demonstrated the inherent essence of the onset of tertiary creep (point C) from a mathematical point of view.…”

“…The derivation process is outlined in detail in previous literature (Smalley et al, 1985;Qin et al, 2010b;Xue et al, 2013). For Eq.…”

“…Under an external load, each cell of potential sliding surface will bear a local stress. When σ cell is less than the corresponding local stress, the cell will fail and the probability that this cell will break is p α , which can be expressed as (Smalley et al, 1985;Qin et al, 2010b;Xue, 2014) …”

“…When an additional stress (x-y)σ from a neighboring broken cell is transferred to this unbroken cell, its total stress will reach the strength xσ and this unbroken cell will break. To evaluate the influence of broken cells on the neighboring unbroken cells, a conditional failure probability, p x,y , is introduced and can be expressed as (Smalley et al, 1985;Qin et al, 2010b;Xue, 2014) …”

Rock Burst Monitoring by Integrated Microseismic and Electromagnetic Radiation Methods

“…(2) There are locked patches (solid bodies) (Mei 1995;Qin et al 2010) in the coal or rock mass that cause crack nucleation to be discontinuous. Hence, the coal rock mass will store energy before the locked patches fracture (Dai et al 2006).…”