Rationale: Benefits of identifying risk factors for bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely premature infants include providing prognostic information, identifying infants likely to benefit from preventive strategies, and stratifying infants for clinical trial enrollment. Objectives: To identify risk factors for bronchopulmonary dysplasia, and the competing outcome of death, by postnatal day; to identify which risk factors improve prediction; and to develop a Web-based estimator using readily available clinical information to predict risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia or death. Measurements and Main Results: Bronchopulmonary dysplasia was defined as a categorical variable (none, mild, moderate, or severe). We developed and validated models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia risk at six postnatal ages using gestational age, birth weight, race and ethnicity, sex, respiratory support, and FI O 2 , and examined the models using a C statistic (area under the curve). A total of 3,636 infants were eligible for this study. Prediction improved with advancing postnatal age, increasing from a C statistic of 0.793 on Day 1 to a maximum of 0.854 on Day 28. On Postnatal Days 1 and 3, gestational age best improved outcome prediction; on Postnatal Days 7, 14, 21, and 28, type of respiratory support did so. A Web-based model providing predicted estimates for bronchopulmonary dysplasia by postnatal day is available at https://neonatal.rti.org. Conclusions: The probability of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely premature infants can be determined accurately using a limited amount of readily available clinical information.Keywords: bronchopulmonary dysplasia; prematurity; low-birth-weight infant
AT A GLANCE COMMENTARY Scientific Knowledge on the SubjectBronchopulmonary dysplasia is the most common serious pulmonary morbidity in premature infants. Although accurate predictive models of bronchopulmonary dysplasia risk are sometimes used in research, none are currently used in common clinical practice for a variety of reasons.
What This Study Adds to the FieldIn this study, we identified the change in the relative contributions of a variety of risk factors to the prediction of bronchopulmonary dysplasia with advancing postnatal age. This tool may help identify patients most likely to benefit from postnatal treatment and assist in the design of clinical trials to assess the efficacy of preventive therapies in high-risk populations.