Brothers in arms? Covid-19 and Hindu-Muslim conflict in India1

Abstract

Recurrent episodes of Hindu-Muslim violence have plagued India for many years. The Covid-19 pandemic poses new challenges against this backdrop of religious conflict. We explore the performance of various Indian districts in terms of their Covid-19 cases alongside their historical proclivities towards Hindu-Muslim violence. The link between inter-faith cooperation in an area and its subsequent performance in terms of Covid-19 cases is theoretically ambiguous. It may be that areas characterised by low(er) religious antagonism are better able to harness trust within and across communities to jointly battle the spread of the pandemic. Equally, the continual presence of religious violence may induce cooperation within each community and thus check the spread of the virus in riot-prone areas. Combining several district-level datasets, we uncover a robust correlation between various Covid-related outcomes and past conflict measures. Specifically, we find that higher levels of prior Hindu-Muslim conflict is associated with a lower number of Covid-19 infections, deaths and active cases. This pattern is consistent and holds across a wide range of specifications. Our empirical analysis therefore finds strong support for the latter channel.