Bubble, Weak and Strong Hyperinflation: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractThis paper presents a theoretical framework that allows a taxonomy of hyperinflation, namely: (i) bubble, (ii) weak and (iii) strong hyperinflation. The inflation tax revenue curve is used to characterize each type of hyperinflation and we use this curve to test them. The bubble and strong hyperinflation hypotheses are rejected using Brazilian data. The weak hyperinflation hypothesis is not rejected and the economy could have been on the 'wrong' side of the Laffer curve during hyperinflation. This outcome, contrary to conventional wisdom, is predicted by this hypothesis, which presents a solution to an old puzzle of the hyperinflation literature. © 2015 National Association of Postgraduate Centers in Economics, ANPEC. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. ResumoEste trabalho apresenta um arcabouço teórico que permite uma taxonomia da hiperinflação. Ela é classificada em três tipos: (i) bolha; (ii) fraca; e (iii) forte. A curva do imposto inflacionário é usada para identificar cada tipo e para testá-las. As hipóteses de hiperinflação forte e de bolha são rejeitadas com dados da economia brasileira. A hipótese de hiperinflação fraca não é rejeitada e a economia poderia estar no "lado errado" da curva de Laffer. Esta ocorrência, uma possibilidade da hipótese de hiperinflação fraca, soluciona um quebra-cabeça antigo da literatura de hiperinflação.

On testing for bubbles during hyperinflations

“…The analysis of de HolandaBarbosa and da Silva Filho (2015), based on a framework that is not directly comparable to ours, supports the claim that the Brazilian hyperinflation was caused by fundamentals via an increasing fiscal deficit financed by money.10 Using a different methodology,Blackburn and Sola (1996) conclude that the empirical evidence is consistent with the existence of a purely collapsing stochastic bubble.11Hooker (2000) concludes, using a different approach, that the empirical evidence does not support the existence of a rational bubble during either the German or the Polish hyperinflations.…”