Building a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for Ireland

Abstract

Microsimulation describes economic and social events by modelling the behaviour of individual agents. These models have proved useful in evaluating the impact of policy changes at the micro‐level. Spatial microsimulation models contain geographical information and allow for a regional or local approach to policy analysis. This paper builds on previous work on urban systems by employing similar modelling techniques for the analysis of rural areas. It describes the development of the SMILE (Simulation Model for the Irish Local Economy) model. SMILE is a dynamic spatial microsimulation model designed to analyse the impact of policy change and economic development on rural areas in Ireland. At its core, SMILE is a model of population. It simulates the basic components of population change, fertility, mortality and internal migration, at a small area level. This paper describes the method for projecting population change at the sub‐county level. Results from the 1991 and 1996 dynamic model at county level are discussed, and a brief comparison is made with other methods. Finally, the features that distinguish microsimulation models from other population projection models are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Poverty at the Local Level: National and Small Area Poverty Estimates by Family Type for Australia in 2006

“…The general method is outlined in more detail in Chin et al (2005), , , Cassells et al (2010) and Lymer et al (2008). The use of microsimulation methodology to create synthetic small area estimates of population characteristics was pioneered in the late 1980s and early 1990s (see work by Birkin and Clarke 1988, 1989and Williamson 1992 and has been used subsequently to derive small area estimates of income and income poverty (Anderson 2007;Ballas 2004;Lymer et al 2008;) as well as other population characteristics and policy impacts (see also work by (Ballas et al 2005(Ballas et al , 2007Williamson et al 1998)). The model used here is described below.…”

Spatial microsimulation for rural policy analysis in Ireland: The implications of CAP reforms for the national spatial strategy

“…Third, spatial microsimulation models store data efficiently as lists rather than large-scale matrices. Finally, the models allow for updating and projecting (Ballas et al, 2005). In the next section we describe the model developed for rural Ireland.…”

“…Internal migration is modelled using countylevel flow data from the Irish census of population. The dynamic model is described in more detail in Ballas et al (2005).…”

Small-area population forecasting in an urban setting: a spatial regression approach

“…Integrated land use models consider a variety of population change factors and use advanced spatial analysis and statistical techniques (Tayman 1996). Spatial microsimulation methods provide spatially disaggregated microdata that can be aggregated to any geographical level and enable assessment of 'what-if' questions (Ballas et al 2005). Grid-cell-based population forecasting often uses remote sensing data (Riahi and Nakicenovic 2007).…”