Building on uncertainty: how to cope with incomplete knowledge, unpredictability and ambiguity in ecological engineering projects

Abstract

The work was carried out as part of the innovation program Building with Nature (subproject GOV

Uncertainties in the assessment of “significant effect” on the Dutch Natura 2000 Wadden Sea site – The mussel seed fishery and powerboat race controversies

“…Especially since the EU case law demands certainty that activities not adversely affect the integrity of a Natura 2000 site (ECJ, 2004). We perceive uncertainties as relational and constructed in particular situations (Shackley and Wynne, 1996;Van den Hoek, 2014). Much can be uncertain in the assessment of significant effects, such as which protected species could be affected, the prediction of impacts, and the assessment to what extent this would influence the site's conservation objectives (Opdam et al, 2009).…”

Knowledge uncertainties in environmental conflicts: how the mussel fishery controversy in the Dutch Wadden Sea became depoliticised

“…As a result, knowledge claims can be undermined or become controversial. We analytically distinguish three types of perceptions of uncertainty: incomplete knowledge, unpredictability and ambiguity (Van Den Hoek 2014, Floor et al 2016)see Figure 1. The uncertainty of incomplete knowledge links to perceived imperfection of knowledge: things are currently unknown but potentially available through additional research.…”

Knowledge uncertainties in nature conservation : Analysing science-policy interactions in the Dutch Wadden Sea

“…To acknowledge the different types of knowledge situations and the relational character of uncertainties in decision-making processes, I will distinguish three types of uncertainty. Building on Brugnach et al (2008) and Van den Hoek (2014), I conceptualise uncertainty as incomplete knowledge, unpredictability and ambiguity, see Figure 1.3. In my approach, the uncertainty of incomplete knowledge refers to expressions of knowledge imperfections: to what is unknown at the moment but could be made available with additional research.…”

“…To deepen our understanding of the science-policy debates, we analyse how actors address uncertainties. In doing so, we take a relational perspective on uncertainties, seeing them as constructed in particular settings (Shackley and Wynne 1996;Van den Hoek 2014). As Brugnach et al (2008, p. 5) observe: "the definition of a problem and what is uncertain about it depends not only on scientific or expert understanding, but on the knowledge, views, and preferences of the decision-maker in relation to those of other actors with whom the decision-maker interacts to make sense of the situation" (Brugnach et al 2008, p.5).…”

“…Building on (Dewulf et al 2009;Van den Hoek et al 2014), we distinguish three types of perceptions of uncertainty: incomplete knowledge, unpredict-ability and ambiguity; see also Figure 5.1. Uncertainty can be characterised as incomplete knowledge when actors expect that certainty can be obtained by additional research.…”