Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States

Marto, Ricardo; Papageorgiou, Chris; Klyuev, Vladimir

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3079547

Cited by 11 publications

(18 citation statements)

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“…Policymakers and academics have been increasingly engaged in a lively debate about the short‐ and long‐run macroeconomic effects of natural disasters, as well as about the proper policy responses (see e.g. Marto, Papageorgiou, and Klyuev, 2018; Cantelmo, Melina, and Papageorgiou, 2019; Adam and Bevan, 2020). As far as advanced economies are concerned, these are events that have historically occurred with a low frequency but can have a large impact on GDP.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy*

Cantelmo

2022

Oxf Bull Econ Stat

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This paper evaluates the impact of rare disasters on the natural interest rate and macroeconomic conditions by simulating a nonlinear New-Keynesian model. The model is calibrated using data on natural disasters in OECD countries. From an ex-ante perspective, disaster risk behaves as a negative demand shock and lowers the natural rate and inflation, even if disasters hit only the supply side of the economy. These effects become larger and nonlinear if extreme natural disasters become more frequent, a scenario compatible with climate change projections. From an ex-post perspective, a disaster realization leads to temporarily higher natural rate and inflation if supply-side effects prevail. If agents' risk aversion increases temporarily, disasters may generate larger demand effects and lead to a lower natural rate and inflation. If supply-side effects dominate, the central bank could mitigate output losses at the cost of temporarily higher inflation in the short run. Conversely, under strict inflation targeting, inflation is stabilized at the cost of larger output losses.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy*

Cantelmo

2022

Oxf Bull Econ Stat

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“…For instance, Burns, Jooste, and Schwerhoff (2021) compared the performance of four alternative DRM strategies for hurricane damage in Jamaica, specifically adaptation investment, insurance, contingency funds, and debt reduction, assessing the accompanying trade-offs of each policy. Marto, Papageorgiou, and Klyuev (2018) applied a dynamic general equilibrium model to the case of Cyclone Pam in Vanuatu, comparing different financing channels and pre-disaster adaptation measures with post-disaster growth and debt trajectories. Their findings suggested that ex ante resilience policies can reduce debt distress and recovery costs in the aftermath of a disaster.…”

Section: Conclusion and Policy Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Blue Economy and Blue Finance: Toward Sustainable Development and Ocean Governance

Huang¹,

Voyer²,

Benzaken³

et al. 2022

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The views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), its Advisory Council, ADB's Board or Governors, or the governments of ADB members. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. ADBI uses proper ADB member names and abbreviations throughout and any variation or inaccuracy, including in citations and references, should be read as referring to the correct name.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "recognize," "country," or other geographical names in this publication, ADBI does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works without the express, written consent of ADBI.ADB recognizes "China" as the People's Republic of China; "Korea" and "South Korea" as the Republic of Korea; and "Britain" as the United Kingdom.

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“…These studies, such as Hamdan et al (2011), Hosoya (2016), Motoyama (2017), Marto et al (2018), Boccard (2018), Songwathama (2018), Benali et al (2018), and Bhat and Mishra (2018) use theoretical and empirical economic models. This part of the literature mainly focuses on the research methods of economics and lacks the research methods of other academic subjects.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Two studies used a theoretical model, Motoyama (2017) used dynamic stochastic models to analyse public disaster prevention expenditure and found that disaster probability has an impact on disaster prevention. Marto et al (2018) explored the impact of natural disasters on the economy using a dynamic small open model and found that developing countries were more often economically damaged by natural disasters and that donations played an important role in recovery. The above two literatures demonstrate the use of mathematical models to simulate the impact of natural disasters and disaster prevention variables on economic development.…”

Section: Economic and Social Impact Of Natural Disastersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first main research area has been focused on disaster risk reduction; for example, Iwata, Ito, and Managi (2014) examined disaster damage in Japan, Mashi, Abubakar, Dominic, and Amina (2018) reviewed Nigeriaʼs disaster response abilities, and Lam and Kuipers (2019) studied damage reduction and recovery after the 2015 Nepalese earthquake. The second research area has been focused on the economic and social impacts of natural disasters; for example, Hosoya (2016) studied the economic impacts of the Japanese Great Eastern Earthquake and Tsunami, Marto, Papageorgiou, and Klyuev (2018) explored the impact of natural disasters on economies, and Songwathana (2018) explored the relationships between natural disasters and economic development. The third main area of research has been natural disaster risk assessments; for example, Brown, Daigneault, Tjernström, and Zou (2018) researched Fijian household risk attitudes toward the likelihood and severity of natural disasters over the next 20 years and found that extreme events could change individual risk perceptions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of natural disaster treatment efficiency in 27 Chinese provinces

Liu

Chiu

Lin

et al. 2021

Natural Resources Forum

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Research on disaster mitigation and prevention has tended to focus on the impact of natural disasters on the economy and strategies for risk reduction and mitigation. There has been significant research on disaster prevention and treatment efficiencies, however, most analyses have employed traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) radial models that do not consider undesirable output. Differing from previous research, this study employed a non‐radial directional distance function DEA that included an undesirable output analysis to evaluate the natural hazard management efficiency in 27 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions in China. Results show that: (a) economic losses from natural disasters were lower due to the increase in natural disaster prevention and control program expenditure; (b) the overall natural disaster control efficiencies varied significantly across the provinces; and (c) Tibet and Xinjiang, which have the lowest general disaster prevention efficiencies, could benefit from following the example set by provinces such as Sichuan and Guangdong, which have the highest disaster prevention efficiencies. Disaster prevention efficiencies measure the overall performance of each province in disaster prevention. This efficiency index is measured by input (disaster prevention expenditure) and output (number of natural disasters prevented and natural disaster economic losses), and its calculation method is the ratio of the actual value of each input and output to the target value. This ratio is called the efficiency score, and the efficiency score is between 0 and 1. An efficiency score of 1 represents the most efficient.

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Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States

Cited by 11 publications

References 0 publications

Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy*

Rare Disasters, the Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy*

Blue Economy and Blue Finance: Toward Sustainable Development and Ocean Governance

Evaluation of natural disaster treatment efficiency in 27 Chinese provinces

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