Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Vollset, Stein Emil; Ababneh, Hazim S; Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh; Abbasian, Mohammadreza; Abbastabar, Hedayat; Abd Al Magied, Abdallah H A; Abd ElHafeez, Samar; Abdelkader, Atef; Abdelmasseh, Michael; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief; Abdi, Parsa; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Abdoun, Meriem; Abdullahi, Auwal; Abebe, Mesfin; Abiodun, Olumide; Aboagye, Richard Gyan; Abolhassani, Hassan; Abouzid, Mohamed; Aboye, Girma Beressa; Abreu, Lucas Guimarães; Absalan, Abdorrahim; Abualruz, Hasan; Abubakar, Bilyaminu; Abukhadijah, Hana Jihad Jihad; Addolorato, Giovanni; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adetunji, Charles Oluwaseun; Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi; Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther; Adha, Rishan; Adhikary, Ripon Kumar; Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah; Adzigbli, Leticia Akua; Afrashteh, Fatemeh; Afzal, Muhammad Sohail; Afzal, Saira; Agbozo, Faith; Agodi, Antonella; Agrawal, Anurag; Agyemang-Duah, Williams; Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku; Ahlstrom, Austin J; Ahmad, Aqeel; Ahmad, Firdos; Ahmad, Muayyad M; Ahmad, Sajjad; Ahmad, Shahzaib; Ahmed, Anisuddin; Ahmed, Ayman; Ahmed, Haroon; Ahmed, Safoora; Ahmed, Syed Anees; Akinosoglou, Karolina; Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed; Akrami, Ashley E; Akter, Ema; Al Awaidy, Salah; Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz; Al Mosa, Amjad S; Al Ta'ani, Omar; Al Zaabi, Omar Ali Mohammed; Alahdab, Fares; Alajlani, Muaaz M; Al-Ajlouni, Yazan; Alalalmeh, Samer O; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alam, Tahiya; Alam, Zufishan; Al-amer, Rasmieh Mustafa; Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour; Alanzi, Turki M; Albakri, Almaza; Aldhaleei, Wafa A; Aldridge, Robert W; Alemohammad, Seyedeh Yasaman; Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta; Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed; Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled; Ali, Abid; Ali, Amjad; Ali, Iman; Ali, Mohammed Usman; Ali, Rafat; Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait; Ali, Victor Ekoche; Ali, Waad; Al-Ibraheem, Akram; Alicandro, Gianfranco; Alif, Sheikh Mohammad; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed; Alla, François; Almazan, Joseph Uy; Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M; Alqutaibi, Ahmed Yaseen; Alrawashdeh, Ahmad; Alrousan, Sahel Majed; Al-Sabah, Salman Khalifah; Alsabri, Mohammed A; Altaany, Zaid; Al-Tammemi, Ala'a B.; Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Aluh, Deborah Oyine; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Al-Wardat, Mohammad Sami; Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed; Aly, Hany; Alyahya, Mohammad Sharif; Alzoubi, Karem H; Al-Zyoud, Walid; Amani, Reza; Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena; Amin, Tarek Tawfik; Amindarolzarbi, Alireza; Amiri, Sohrab; Amirzade-Iranaq, Mohammad Hosein; Amu, Hubert; Amugsi, Dickson A; Ancuceanu, Robert; Anderlini, Deanna; Anderson, David B; Andrade, Pedro Prata; Andrei, Catalina Liliana; Andrei, Tudorel; Andrews, Erick Adrian; Anil, Abhishek; Anil, Sneha; Anoushiravani, Amir; Antony, Catherine M; Antriyandarti, Ernoiz; Anuoluwa, Boluwatife Stephen; Anvari, Saeid; Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward; Appiah, Francis; Aquilano, Michele; Arab, Juan Pablo; Arabloo, Jalal; Arafa, Elshaimaa A; Arafat, Mosab; Aravkin, Aleksandr Y; Ardekani, Ali; Areda, Demelash; Aregawi, Brhane Berhe; Aremu, Abdulfatai; Ariffin, Hany; Arkew, Mesay; Armani, Keivan; Artamonov, Anton A; Arumugam, Ashokan; Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Ashbaugh, Charlie; Astell-Burt, Thomas; Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin; Atorkey, Prince; Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi; Aujayeb, Avinash; Ausloos, Marcel; Awad, Hamzeh; Awotidebe, Adedapo Wasiu; Ayatollahi, Haleh; Ayuso-Mateos, Jose L; Azadnajafabad, Sina; Azeez, Fahad Khan; Azevedo, Rui M S; Badar, Muhammad; Baghdadi, Soroush; Bagheri, Mahboube; Bagheri, Nasser; Bai, Ruhai; Baker, Jennifer L; Bako, Abdulaziz T; Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar; Balcha, Wondu Feyisa; Baltatu, Ovidiu Constantin; Barchitta, Martina; Bardideh, Erfan; Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn; Bärnighausen, Till Winfried; Barqawi, Hiba Jawdat; Barteit, Sandra; Basiru, Afisu; Basso, João Diogo; Bastan, Mohammad-Mahdi; Basu, Sanjay; Bauckneht, Matteo; Baune, Bernhard T; Bayati, Mohsen; Bayileyegn, Nebiyou Simegnew; Behnoush, Amir Hossein; Behzadi, Payam; Beiranvand, Maryam; Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja; Belo, Luis; Beloukas, Apostolos; Bemanalizadeh, Maryam; Bensenor, Isabela M; Benzian, Habib; Beran, Azizullah; Berezvai, Zombor; Bernstein, Robert S; Bettencourt, Paulo J G; Beyene, Kebede A; Beyene, Melak Gedamu; Bhagat, Devidas S; Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhandari, Dinesh; Bharadwaj, Ravi; Bhardwaj, Nikha; Bhardwaj, Pankaj; Bhargava, Ashish; Bhaskar, Sonu; Bhat, Vivek; Bhattacharjee, Natalia V; Bhatti, Gurjit Kaur; Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh; Bhatti, Manpreet S; Bhuiyan, Mohiuddin Ahmed; Bisignano, Catherine; Biswas, Bijit; Bjørge, Tone; Bodolica, Virginia; Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan; Bonakdar Hashemi, Milad; Bora Basara, Berrak; Borhany, Hamed; Bosoka, Samuel Adolf; Botero Carvajal, Alejandro; Bouaoud, Souad; Boufous, Soufiane; Boxe, Christopher; Boyko, Edward J; Brady, Oliver J; Braithwaite, Dejana; Brauer, Michael; Brazo-Sayavera, Javier; Brenner, Hermann; Brown, Colin Stewart; Browne, Annie J; Brugha, Traolach; Bryazka, Dana; Bulamu, Norma B; Buonsenso, Danilo; Burkart, Katrin; Burns, Richard A; Busse, Reinhard; Bustanji, Yasser; Butt, Zahid A; Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano; Çakmak Barsbay, Mehtap; Calina, Daniela; Campos, Luciana Aparecida; Cao, Shujin; Capodici, Angelo; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carreras, Giulia; Carugno, Andrea; Carvalho, Márcia; Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio; Castelpietra, Giulio; Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia; Caye, Arthur; Cegolon, Luca; Cembranel, Francieli; Cenko, Edina; Cerin, Ester; Chadban, Steven J; Chadwick, Joshua; Chakraborty, Chiranjib; Chakraborty, Sandip; Chalek, Julian; Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai; Chandika, Rama Mohan; Chandy, Sara; Charan, Jaykaran; Chaudhary, Anis Ahmad; Chaurasia, Akhilanand; Chen, An-Tian; Chen, Haowei; Chen, Meng Xuan; Chen, Simiao; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Chi, Gerald; Chichagi, Fatemeh; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chimoriya, Ritesh; Ching, Patrick R; Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo; Chitheer, Abdulaal; Cho, Daniel Youngwhan; Cho, William C S; Choi, Dong-Woo; Chong, Bryan; Chong, Chean Lin; Chopra, Hitesh; Chu, Dinh-Toi; Chung, Eric; Chutiyami, Muhammad; Clayton, Justin T; Cogen, Rebecca M; Cohen, Aaron J; Columbus, Alyssa; Comfort, Haley; Conde, Joao; Connolly, Jon T; Cooper, Ezra E K; Cortese, Samuele; Cruz-Martins, Natália; da Silva, Alanna Gomes; Dadras, Omid; Dai, Xiaochen; Dai, Zhaoli; Dalton, Bronte E; Damiani, Giovanni; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Das, Jai K; Das, Saswati; Das, Subasish; Dash, Nihar Ranjan; Davletov, Kairat; De la Hoz, Fernando Pio; De Leo, Diego; Debopadhaya, Shayom; Delgado-Enciso, Ivan; Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar; Dervenis, Nikolaos; Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai; Devanbu, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan; Dewan, Syed Masudur Rahman; Dhama, Kuldeep; Dhane, Amol S; Dhingra, Sameer; Dias da Silva, Diana; Diaz, Daniel; Diaz, Luis Antonio; Diaz, Michael J; Dima, Adriana; Ding, Delaney D; Do, Thao Huynh Phuong; do Prado, Camila Bruneli; Dodangeh, Masoud; Dodangeh, Milad; Doegah, Phidelia Theresa; Dohare, Sushil; Dong, Wanyue; D'Oria, Mario; Doshi, Rajkumar; Dowou, Robert Kokou; Dsouza, Haneil Larson; Dsouza, Viola; Dube, John; Dumith, Samuel C; Duncan, Bruce B; Duraes, Andre Rodrigues; Duraisamy, Senbagam; Durojaiye, Oyewole Christopher; Dushpanova, Anar; Dutta, Sulagna; Dzianach, Paulina Agnieszka; Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian; Eboreime, Ejemai; Ebrahimi, Alireza; Ebrahimi Kalan, Mohammad; Edinur, Hisham Atan; Efendi, Ferry; Eikemo, Terje Andreas; Eini, Ebrahim; Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus; El Arab, Rabie Adel; El Sayed, Iman; Elamin, Osman; Elemam, Noha Mousaad; ElGohary, Ghada Metwally Tawfik; Elhadi, Muhammed; Elmeligy, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou; Elmoselhi, Adel B; Elshaer, Mohammed; Elsohaby, Ibrahim; Eltahir, Mohd. Elmagzoub; Emeto, Theophilus I; Eshrati, Babak; Eslami, Majid; Esmaeili, Zahra; Fabin, Natalia; Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis; Fagbule, Omotayo Francis; Falzone, Luca; Fareed, Mohammad; Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá; Faris, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud; Faro, Andre; Fasihi, Kiana; Fatehizadeh, Ali; Fauk, Nelsensius Klau; Fazylov, Timur; Feigin, Valery L; Fekadu, Ginenus; Feng, Xiaoqi; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Ferrara, Pietro; Ferreira, Nuno; Firew, Belete Sewasew; Fischer, Florian; Fitriana, Ida; Flavel, Joanne; Flor, Luisa S; Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin; Foley, Kristen Marie; Fonzo, Marco; Force, Lisa M; Foschi, Matteo; Freitas, Alberto; Fridayani, Ni Kadek Yuni; Fukutaki, Kai Glenn; Furtado, João M; Fux, Blima; Gaal, Peter Andras; Gadanya, Muktar A; Gallus, Silvano; Ganesan, Balasankar; Ganiyani, Mohammad Arfat; Gautam, Rupesh K; Gebi, Tilaye Gebru; Gebregergis, Miglas W; Gebrehiwot, Mesfin; Getacher, Lemma; Getahun, Genanew K A; Gething, Peter W; Ghadimi, Delaram J; Ghadirian, Fataneh; Ghafarian, Sadegh; Ghailan, Khalid Yaser; Ghasemi, MohammadReza; Ghasempour Dabaghi, Ghazal; Ghazy, Ramy Mohamed; Ghoba, Sama; Gholami, Ehsan; Gholamrezanezhad, Ali; Gholizadeh, Nasim; Ghorbani, Mahsa; Ghorbani Vajargah, Pooyan; Ghotbi, Elena; Gil, Artyom Urievich; Gill, Tiffany K; Girmay, Alem; Glasbey, James C; Glushkova, Ekaterina Vladimirovna; Gnedovskaya, Elena V; Göbölös, Laszlo; Goldust, Mohamad; Goleij, Pouya; Golinelli, Davide; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Goulart, Alessandra C; Gouravani, Mahdi; Goyal, Anmol; Grivna, Michal; Grosso, Giuseppe; Guarducci, Giovanni; Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen; Guicciardi, Stefano; Guimarães, Rafael Alves; Gulati, Snigdha; Gulisashvili, David; Gunawardane, Damitha Asanga; Guo, Cui; Gupta, Anish Kumar; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Renu; Gupta, Sapna; Gupta, Vijai Kumar; Haakenstad, Annie; Hadi, Najah R; Haep, Nils; Hafiz, Abdul; Haghmorad, Dariush; Haile, Demewoz; Hajj Ali, Adel; Hajj Ali, Ali; Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin; Halboub, Esam S; Haller, Sebastian; Halwani, Rabih; Hamagharib Abdullah, Kanaan; Hamdy, Nadia M; Hamoudi, Rifat; Hanifi, Nasrin; Hankey, Graeme J; Haq, Zaim Anan; Haque, Md Rabiul; Harapan, Harapan; Hargono, Arief; Haro, Josep Maria; Hasaballah, Ahmed I; Hasan, S. M. Mahmudul; Hasanian, Mohammad; Hasnain, Md Saquib; Hassan, Amr; Haubold, Johannes; Hay, Simon I; Hebert, Jeffrey J; Hegazi, Omar E; Heidari, Mohammad; Hemmati, Mehdi; Henson, Claire A; Herrera-Serna, Brenda Yuliana; Herteliu, Claudiu; Heydari, Majid; Hezam, Kamal; Hidayana, Irma; Hiraike, Yuta; Hoan, Nguyen Quoc; Holla, Ramesh; Hoogar, Praveen; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hossain, Md Mahbub; Hosseinzadeh, Hassan; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Hostiuc, Mihaela; Hostiuc, Sorin; Hu, Chengxi; Huang, Junjie; Hultström, Michael; Hundie, Tsegaye Gebreyes; Hunt, Aliza J; Hushmandi, Kiavash; Hussain, Javid; Hussain, M. Azhar; Hussein, Nawfal R; Huynh, Hong-Han; Hwang, Bing-Fang; Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel; Iftikhar, Pulwasha Maria; Ikiroma, Adalia I; Ikwegbue, Paul Chukwudi; Ilic, Irena M; Ilic, Milena D; Immurana, Mustapha; Isa, Mustafa Alhaji; Islam, Md. Rabiul; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Ismail, Faisal; Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah; Isola, Gaetano; Iwagami, Masao; Iyamu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi; Jacob, Louis; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jafarinia, Morteza; Jahankhani, Kasra; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jain, Nityanand; Jairoun, Ammar Abdulrahman; Jakhmola Mani, Dr Ruchi; Jamil, Safayet; Jamora, Roland Dominic G; Jatau, Abubakar Ibrahim; Javadov, Sabzali; Javaheri, Tahereh; Jayaram, Shubha; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeganathan, Jayakumar; Jiang, Heng; Jokar, Mohammad; Jonas, Jost B; Joseph, Nitin; Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma; Jürisson, Mikk; K, Vaishali; Kabir, Ali; Kabir, Zubair; Kadashetti, Vidya; Kalankesh, Laleh R; Kalra, Sanjay; Kamath, Ashwin; Kamath, Rajesh; Kamireddy, Arun; Kanaan, Mona; Kanchan, Tanuj; Kanmiki, Edmund Wedam; Kanmodi, Kehinde Kazeem; Kansal, Sushil Kumar; Karim, Asima; Karkhah, Samad; Kashoo, Faizan Zaffar; Kasraei, Hengameh; Kassel, Molly B; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Kauppila, Joonas H; Kaur, Harkiran; Kayode, Gbenga A; Kazemi, Foad; Kazemian, Sina; Kebede, Fassikaw; Kendal, Evie Shoshannah; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Khademvatan, Shahram; Khajuria, Himanshu; Khalaji, Amirmohammad; Khalid, Asaad; Khalid, Nauman; Khalilian, Alireza; Khamesipour, Faham; Khan, Fayaz; Khan, Mohammad Jobair; Khan, Moien AB; Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh; Khatab, Khaled; Khatatbeh, Haitham; Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad; Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli; Khayat Kashani, Hamid Reza; Kheirallah, Khalid A; Khokhar, Manoj; Khormali, Moein; Khorrami, Zahra; Khosla, Atulya Aman; Khosravi, Majid; Khosrowjerdi, Mahmood; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kifle, Zemene Demelash; Kim, Grace; Kim, Julie Sojin; Kim, Min Seo; Kim, Yun Jin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kisa, Adnan; Kisa, Sezer; Knibbs, Luke D; Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo; Kochhar, Sonali; Kolahi, Ali-Asghar; Kompani, Farzad; Koren, Gerbrand; Korzh, Oleksii; Krishan, Kewal; Krishna, Varun; Krishnamoorthy, Vijay; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kuddus, Md Abdul; Kuddus, Mohammed; Kuitunen, Ilari; Kujan, Omar; Kulimbet, Mukhtar; Kulkarni, Vishnutheertha; Kumar, G Anil; Kumar, Harish; Kumar, Nithin; Kumar, Rakesh; Kumar, Vijay; Kundu, Amartya; Kusuma, Dian; Kyei-Arthur, Frank; Kytö, Ville; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lacey, Ben; Ladan, Muhammad Awwal; Laflamme, Lucie; Lahariya, Chandrakant; Lai, Daphne Teck Ching; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lám, Judit; Lan, Qing; Lan, Tuo; Landires, Iván; Lanfranchi, Francesco; Langguth, Berthold; Lansingh, Van Charles; Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane; Larijani, Bagher; Larsson, Anders O; Lasrado, Savita; Lauriola, Paolo; Lawlor, Hilary R; Le, Huu-Hoai; Le, Long Khanh Dao; Le, Nhi Huu Hanh; Le, Thao Thi Thu; Le, Trang Diep Thanh; Leasher, Janet L; Lee, Doo Woong; Lee, Munjae; Lee, Paul H; Lee, Sang-woong; Lee, Seung Won; Lee, Shaun Wen Huey; Lee, Yo Han; Leigh, James; Leong, Elvynna; Li, Ming-Chieh; Libra, Massimo; Ligade, Virendra S; Lim, Lee-Ling; Lim, Stephen S; Limenh, Liknaw Workie; Lindholm, Daniel; Lindstedt, Paulina A; Listl, Stefan; Liu, Gang; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Shuke; Liu, Xiaofeng; Liu, Xuefeng; Llanaj, Erand; López-Bueno, Rubén; López-Gil, José Francisco; Loreche, Arianna Maever; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lozano, Rafael; Lubinda, Jailos; Lucchetti, Giancarlo; Luo, Lisha; Lusk, Jay B; Lv, Lei; M Amin, Hawraz Ibrahim; Ma, Zheng Feei; Maass, Kelsey Lynn; Machairas, Nikolaos; Machoy, Monika; Madureira-Carvalho, Áurea M; Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan; Maghazachi, Azzam A; Mahadeshwara Prasad, D.R.; Mahalleh, Mehrdad; Mahasha, Phetole Walter; Mahmoud, Mansour Adam; Mahmoudi, Elham; Mahmoudvand, Golnaz; Makama, Maureen; Malakan Rad, Elaheh; Malhotra, Kashish; Malik, Ahmad Azam; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Manla, Yosef; Mansour, Ali; Mansouri, Mohammad Hadi; Mansouri, Pejman; Mansouri, Vahid; Mansourian, Marjan; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Marasini, Bishnu P; Marateb, Hamid Reza; Maravilla, Joemer C; Mardi, Parham; Marjani, Abdoljalal; Markazi Moghadam, Hamed; Marrugo Arnedo, Carlos Alberto; Martinez, Gabriel; Martinez-Piedra, Ramon; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Martorell, Miquel; Marx, Wolfgang; Marzo, Roy Rillera; Masoudi, Sahar; Mathangasinghe, Yasith; Mathioudakis, Alexander G; Mathur, Medha; Mathur, Navgeet; Mathur, Neeta; Matozinhos, Fernanda Penido; Mattumpuram, Jishanth; Maude, Richard James; Maugeri, Andrea; Mayeli, Mahsa; Mazidi, Mohsen; Mazzotti, Antonio; McGrath, John J; McKee, Martin; McKowen, Anna Laura W; McPhail, Michael A; McPhail, Steven M; Mehmood, Asim; Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Kamran; Mehravar, Sepideh; Mekene Meto, Tesfahun; Melese, Endalkachew Belayneh; Mendez-Lopez, Max Alberto Mendez; Mendoza, Walter; Menezes, Ritesh G; Mensah, George A; Mensah, Laverne G; Mentis, Alexios-Fotios A; Meo, Sultan Ayoub; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mersha, Abera M; Mestrovic, Tomislav; Mettananda, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi; Mettananda, Sachith; Mhlanga, Adquate; Mhlanga, Laurette; Miazgowski, Tomasz; Michalek, Irmina Maria; Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá, Ana Carolina; Miller, Ted R; Minh, Le Huu Nhat; Mirahmadi, Alireza; Mirijello, Antonio; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M; Mirzaei, Roya; Mitchell, Philip B; Mittal, Chaitanya; Moberg, Madeline E; Moghadam Fard, Atousa; Mohajelin, Seyedehfatemeh; Mohamadkhani, Ashraf; Mohamed, Ahmed Ismail; Mohamed, Jama; Mohamed, Mouhand F H; Mohamed, Nouh Saad; Mohammad, Ameen Mosa; Mohammadi, Soheil; Mohammed, Hussen; Mohammed, Mustapha; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mokdad, Ali H; Molokhia, Mariam; Momani, Shaher Mohammad; Momtazmanesh, Sara; Monasta, Lorenzo; Mondello, Stefania; Moni, Mohammad Ali; Montazeri, Fateme; Moodi Ghalibaf, AmirAli; Moradi, Maryam; Moradi, Yousef; Moraga, Paula; Morawska, Lidia; Moreira, Rafael Silveira; Morovatdar, Negar; Morrison, Shane Douglas; Mosapour, Abbas; Mosser, Jonathan F; Mossialos, Elias; Motappa, Rohith; Mougin, Vincent; Mousavi, Parsa; Mrejen, Matías; Mubarik, Sumaira; Mueller, Ulrich Otto; Mulita, Francesk; Munjal, Kavita; Murillo-Zamora, Efrén; Musallam, Khaled M; Musina, Ana-Maria; Mustafa, Ghulam; Myung, Woojae; Nafei, Ayoub; Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman; Naghavi, Pirouz; Naik, Ganesh R; Naik, Gurudatta; Nainu, Firzan; Najdaghi, Soroush; Nakhostin Ansari, Noureddin; Nangia, Vinay; Narasimha Swamy, Sreenivas; Nargus, Shumaila; Narimani Davani, Delaram; Nascimento, Bruno Ramos; Nascimento, Gustavo G; Naser, Abdallah Y; Nashwan, Abdulqadir J; Natto, Zuhair S; Nauman, Javaid; Navaratna, Samidi N K; Naveed, Muhammad; Nawsherwan,; Nayak, Biswa Prakash; Nayak, Vinod C; Negash, Hadush; Negoi, Ionut; Negoi, Ruxandra Irina; Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria; Nejjari, Chakib; Nematollahi, Soroush; Netsere, Henok Biresaw; Ng, Marie; Nguefack-Tsague, Georges; Ngunjiri, Josephine W; Nguyen, Anh Hoang; Nguyen, Dang H; Nguyen, Duc Hoang; Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien; Nguyen, Nhan; Nguyen, Nhien Ngoc Y; Nguyen, Phat Tuan; Nguyen, QuynhAnh P; Nguyen, Van Thanh; Nguyen Tran Minh, Duc; Niazi, Robina Khan; Nigatu, Yeshambel T; Niknam, Mahdieh; Nikoobar, Ali; Nikpoor, Amin Reza; Nikravangolsefid, Nasrin; Noman, Efaq Ali; Nomura, Shuhei; Noor, Syed Toukir Ahmed; Noroozi, Nafise; Nouri, Mehran; Nozari, Majid; Nri-Ezedi, Chisom Adaobi; Ntaios, George; Nunemo, Mengistu H; Nurrika, Dieta; Nutor, Jerry John; Nzoputam, Chimezie Igwegbe; Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet; Oancea, Bogdan; Obamiro, Kehinde O; Odetokun, Ismail A; Oduro, Michael Safo; Ogundijo, Oluwaseun Adeolu; Ogunfowokan, Adesola Adenike; Ogunkoya, Abiola; Oguntade, Ayodipupo Sikiru; Oh, In-Hwan; Ojo-Akosile, Tolulope R; Okati-Aliabad, Hassan; Okekunle, Akinkunmi Paul; Okonji, Osaretin Christabel; Olagunju, Andrew T; Olatubi, Matthew Idowu; Oliveira, Gláucia Maria Moraes; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Oluwafemi, Yinka Doris; Omar, Hany A; Omer, Goran Latif; Ong, Sokking; Onie, Sandersan; Onwujekwe, Obinna E; Opejin, Abdulahi Opejin; Ordak, Michal; Orish, Verner N; Ortiz, Alberto; Ortiz-Prado, Esteban; Osman, Wael M S; Ostojic, Sergej M; Ostroff, Samuel M; Osuagwu, Uchechukwu Levi; Otoiu, Adrian; Otstavnov, Stanislav S; Ouyahia, Amel; Owolabi, Mayowa O; Oyeyemi, Oyetunde T; Ozair, Ahmad; P A, Mahesh Padukudru; Padron-Monedero, Alicia; Padubidri, Jagadish Rao; 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doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8

Cited by 95 publications

References 38 publications

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Global Healthspan-Lifespan Gaps Among 183 World Health Organization Member States

Garmany,

Terzic

2024

JAMA Netw Open

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ImportanceHealth-adjusted life expectancy, a measure of healthy longevity, lags longevity gains, resulting in a healthspan-lifespan gap.ObjectiveTo quantify the healthspan-lifespan gap across the globe, investigate for sex disparities, and analyze morbidity and mortality associations.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis retrospective cross-sectional study used the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Observatory as the global data source and acquired national-level data covering all continents. The 183 WHO member states were investigated. Statistical analysis was conducted from January to May 2024.ExposuresData represent 2 decades of longitudinal follow-up.Main Outcomes and MeasuresChanges in life expectancy and health-adjusted life expectancy, as well as the healthspan-lifespan gap were quantified for all participating member states. Gap assessment was stratified by sex. Correlations of the gap with morbidity and mortality were examined.ResultsThe healthspan-lifespan gap has widened globally over the last 2 decades among 183 WHO member states, extending to 9.6 years. A sex difference was observed with women presenting a mean (SD) healthspan-lifespan gap of 2.4 (0.5) years wider than men (P &lt; .001). Healthspan-lifespan gaps were positively associated with the burden of noncommunicable diseases and total morbidity, and negatively with mortality. The US presented the largest healthspan-lifespan gap, amounting to 12.4 years, underpinned by a rise in noncommunicable diseases.Conclusions and RelevanceThis study identifies growing healthspan-lifespan gaps around the globe, threatening healthy longevity across worldwide populations. Women globally exhibited a larger healthspan-lifespan gap than men.

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Global Healthspan-Lifespan Gaps Among 183 World Health Organization Member States

Garmany,

Terzic

2024

JAMA Netw Open

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A novel temperature‐controlled device with standardized manipulation improves chronic back pain mediated by modulating deep muscle thickness: A multicenter randomized controlled trial

Li,

Wang,

Gao

et al. 2024

Clinical and Translational Dis

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BackgroundChronic back pain affected 619 million people globally in 2020 which accounts for a heavy disease burden causing tremendous productivity losses. Current therapies including ibuprofen, duloxetine, and opioids might cause side effects and even severe drug use disorders. Therefore, a non‐pharmacologic therapy with better or equivalent efficacy and fewer side effects is needed.MethodsWe did a multi‐center, single‐blinded, randomized, positive drug controlled, clinical trial. Patients with chronic back pain in moderate severity were randomized into receiving hot stone massage or flurbiprofen plaster group. Both interventions were 2 weeks with a follow‐up of 4 weeks. The primary outcome was the change in the score of the Global Pain Scale (GPS) from baseline to week 2. Secondary outcomes included Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), Chronic Pain Acceptance Questionnaire (CPAQ), Pain Self‐Efficacy Questionnaire (PSEQ), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and Short Form‐36 (SF36) from baseline to week 2 and week 6. Exploratory outcome assessment included the muscle thickness measured by ultrasound. Any adverse event was monitored throughout the study period.ResultsA total of 120 patients were enrolled in this trial. At 2 weeks GPS decreased significantly in the hot stone massage group compared to the flurbiprofen group (difference between groups = ‐8.1 points, 95% confidence interval [CI] ‐15.8 to ‐0.3, p = 0.047). Moreover, hot stone massage also showed more improvement at 2 weeks compared to flurbiprofen, including NRS (‐0.5 points, 95% CI ‐1.0 to ‐0.1, p = 0.029), PSEQ (5.4 points, 95% CI 0.5 to 10.2, p = 0.030), and mental component of Short Form‐36 (SF‐36) (1.7 points, 95% CI 0.4 to 2.9, p = 0.010), but not in CPAQ (p = 0.131), HADS (p = 0.303 for depression, p = 0.399 for anxiety), or SF‐36 (p = 0.129 for physical component, p = 0.246 for social component, p = 0.076 for fatigue component). A total of two participants in the hot stone massage group reported mild pain on skin surface when receiving the procedure at the first intervention session.

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Global, Regional, and National Burden of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma from 1990 to 2021

Wu,

Miao,

Qukuerhan

et al. 2024

The Laryngoscope

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BackgroundThis study analyzes nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) from 1990 to 2021 across 204 countries, focusing on prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs). It examines gender disparities, regional variations, age dynamics, and temporal trends to provide insights for health policy and resource allocation.MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) approach to assess NPC's health burden, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were illustrated using estimated annual percent change (EAPC). Subgroup analysis revealed variations by gender, age, Socio‐Demographic Index (SDI), GBD classification, and country. Age‐period‐cohort (APC) and Bayesian age‐period‐cohort (BAPC) models predicted future trends.ResultsIn 2021, there were 118,878 new NPC cases globally (1.38 per 100,000), with a prevalence of 525,219 cases (6.14 per 100,000), 75,359 deaths (0.87 per 100,000), and 249,019 DALYs (28.91 per 100,000). Males had higher rates across all metrics. Incidence peaked at ages 50–54, mortality at 70–74, and DALYs at 50–54. High SDI regions, especially East and Southeast Asia, showed higher burdens. Despite decreasing age‐standardized incidence rates, absolute cases are rising, necessitating improved prevention and treatment strategies.ConclusionsNPC prevalence has increased due to better diagnosis and aging populations, despite decreasing age‐adjusted incidence rates. Lower mortality rates indicate improved treatment. Males, especially in East and Southeast Asia, bear a higher NPC burden. These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions and tailored public health policies in high‐risk regions.Level of EvidenceIII Laryngoscope, 2024

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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Cited by 95 publications

References 38 publications

Global Healthspan-Lifespan Gaps Among 183 World Health Organization Member States

Global Healthspan-Lifespan Gaps Among 183 World Health Organization Member States

A novel temperature‐controlled device with standardized manipulation improves chronic back pain mediated by modulating deep muscle thickness: A multicenter randomized controlled trial

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma from 1990 to 2021

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