Bushfire simulators and analysis in Australia: insights into an emerging sociotechnical practice

Neale, Timothy; May, Daniel

doi:10.1080/17477891.2017.1410462

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…In such situations, effective suppression of the head fire region is impossible and outright dangerous for firefighter resources (Alexander and Thorburn 2015). The key to mitigating the threat that wildfires pose to the personal safety of people is to be able to gauge their potential speed and direction across the landscape (Cruz et al 2015) and to use this information to release timely and effective public warnings and evacuation orders (Cova et al 2005;Alexander et al 2017;Neale and May 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 10% wind speed rule of thumb for estimating a wildfire’s forward rate of spread in forests and shrublands

Cruz

Alexander

2019

Annals of Forest Science

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& Key message The collective analysis of a relatively large number of wildfire observations documented in conifer forests, dry eucalypt forests and temperate shrublands revealed that the forward rate of fire spread is roughly 10% of the average 10-m open wind speed, provided both are expressed in the same units (e.g. km h −1). & Context Knowledge of a wildfire's forward spread rate is a prerequisite for defining adequate fire suppression strategies and to ensure timely public warnings. & Aims We wanted to investigate the possibility that a simple relationship exists that could be used as a first approximation for quickly estimating a wildfire's spread rate simply from the open wind speed alone. & Methods We analysed data from a number of high-intensity wildfire observations (n = 118) documented in temperate shrublands, Australian dry eucalypt forests and North American conifer forests to examine the suitability and soundness of a relationship between wind speed and rate of fire spread. We also contrasted the performance of the best function against established fire spread rate models for the three fuel types. & Results The resulting rule of thumb is that the forward rate of spread of wildfires burning in forests and shrublands in relatively dry conditions is approximately equal to 10% of the average 10-m open wind speed, where both values are expressed in the same units. & Conclusion The rule of thumb gives the most accurate results for dry fuel and high wind speed conditions with reduced bias and mean relative errors lower than 50%. Under these conditions, the error statistics are comparable to those obtained by the established fire spread rate models. The rule is not applicable to grasslands.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 10% wind speed rule of thumb for estimating a wildfire’s forward rate of spread in forests and shrublands

Cruz

Alexander

2019

Annals of Forest Science

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“…We used the estimates derived above, along with empirically de- (Noble et al, 1980), and underpin Phoenix Rapidfire, the standard operational fire behaviour model for southeast Australian fire agencies (Neale & May, 2018;Tolhurst et al, 2008). We estimated flame height from the McArthur equations, along with scorch height using equations developed by Gould et al (1997).…”

Section: Fire Behaviour Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bioclimatic drivers of fire severity across the Australian geographical range of giantEucalyptusforests

et al. 2021

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1. The relationships between productivity, fire frequency and fire severity shape the distribution of plant communities globally. Dry forests are expected to burn frequently and wet forests to burn infrequently. However, the effect of productivity on intensity and severity of wildfire is less consistent and poorly understood.One productive ecosystem where this is especially true is the Australian tall wet Eucalyptus-dominated forest (TWEF), which spans wet areas across the continent.This study aims to characterise how climate shapes the likelihood of low-and high-severity wildfire across Australian TWEF.2. We performed a continental-scale analysis of fuels in 48 permanent plots in earlymature stage TWEF across four climate regions in Australia. We estimated fuel loads and measured understorey microclimate. We then obtained historical fireweather observations from nearby meteorological stations and used fuel moisture and fire behaviour equations to predict the historical frequency with which TWEF could burn and what fire severities were expected. We investigated how this varies across the different TWEF climate regions. Lastly, we validated our approach by remeasuring eight plots that burned unexpectedly post-measurement.3. We found that surface fuels in cooler, moister regions were available to burn 1-16 days per year historically, with only low-severity, surface fire possible most of these days: high-severity fire was only possible under rare, extreme fire-weather conditions. However, in warmer, drier regions, fuels were available to burn 23-35 days annually, and high-severity fire was more likely than low-severity fire.Validation showed that we slightly overestimated flame heights, inflating highseverity risk estimates. If we used elevated fuel loads to predict flame heights, however, high-severity fire was more likely than low-severity fire everywhere.Lastly, the likelihood of high-severity fire increased with increasing temperature and worsening fire weather. Synthesis.Fire activity in early-mature TWEF is limited by climatic constraints on fire weather and availability to burn, with high-severity fire more likely in warmer, drier regions than in cooler, wetter ones. This indicates a particularly worrisome vulnerability to climate change, given TWEF's diminished ability to recover from disturbance in a warmer world. The occurrence of both low-and high-severity fire means the fire regimes of TWEF are best described as mixed severity.

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“…The use of fire behaviour science has been undergoing a shift in many fire Australian agencies from a system based on experience using hand drawn manual maps to one that increasingly uses simulators (Neale and May, 2018) and includes formal structures and training. A formal predictive services capability within agencies (particularly in NSW) has been a relatively recent feature.…”

Section: Deterministic Vs Probabilistic Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble Methods: Nowcasting to Climate Change - Abstracts of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual R and D Workshop, 26th November to 30th November 2018, Melbourne, Australia

Smith¹

2018

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The Bureau of Meteorology advise that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law and the Bureau of Meteorology (including each of its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it.

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Bushfire simulators and analysis in Australia: insights into an emerging sociotechnical practice

Cited by 17 publications

References 40 publications

The 10% wind speed rule of thumb for estimating a wildfire’s forward rate of spread in forests and shrublands

The 10% wind speed rule of thumb for estimating a wildfire’s forward rate of spread in forests and shrublands

Bioclimatic drivers of fire severity across the Australian geographical range of giantEucalyptusforests

Ensemble Methods: Nowcasting to Climate Change - Abstracts of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual R and D Workshop, 26th November to 30th November 2018, Melbourne, Australia

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