Calculating critical loads for acidity with the simple mass balance method

Sverdrup, Harald; Vries, Wim de

doi:10.1007/bf01257121

Cited by 168 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Among different methods of calculating critical loads is the Steady State Mass Balance (SSMB) model (26). It assumes that the processes of formation and depletion of acidity in soil are time-independent, thus simplifying the dynamic simulation of soil chemistry and facilitating the mapping of critical loads when ecosystem data are limited (27).…”

Section: Mapping Of Critical Load For Soil Acidificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO₂ Emissions Enough?

Zhao

Duan

Xing

et al. 2009

Environ. Sci. Technol.

222

184

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Facing challenges of increased energy consumption and related regional air pollution, China has been aggressively implementing flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and phasing out small inefficient units in the power sector in order to achieve the national goal of 10% reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions from 2005 to 2010. In this paper, the effect of these measures on soil acidification is explored. An integrated methodology is used, combining emission inventory data, emission forecasts, air quality modeling, and ecological sensitivities indicated by critical load. National emissions of SO 2 , oxides of nitrogen (NO X ), particulate matter (PM), and ammonia (NH 3 ) in 2005 were estimated to be 30.7, 19.6, 31.3, and 16.6 Mt, respectively. Implementation of existing policy will lead to reductions in SO 2 and PM emissions, while those of NO X and NH 3 will continue to rise, even under tentatively proposed control measures. In 2005, the critical load for soil acidification caused by sulfur (S) deposition was exceeded in 28% of the country's territory, mainly in eastern and south-central China. The area in exceedance will decrease to 26% and 20% in 2010 and 2020, respectively, given implementation of current plans for emission reductions. However, the exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen (N, combining effects of eutrophication and acidification) will double from 2005 to 2020 due to increased NO X and NH 3 emissions. Combining the acidification effects of S and N, the benefits of SO 2 reductions during 2005-2010 will almost be negated by increased N emissions. Therefore abatement of N emissions (NO X and NH 3 ) and deposition will be a major challenge to China, requiring policy development and technology investments. To mitigate acidification in the future, China needs a multipollutant control strategy that integrates measures to reduce S, N, and PM. From 2000 to 2005, the area of China suffering acid rain was relatively stable or expanded only slightly in the south (2, 6). That is different from Europe and North America, where decreasing trends in acid deposition and related effects (e.g., recovery of acidified surface waters) are clearly observed (7). The power and transportation sectors are considered the most important sources of emissions and hence of regional air pollution and acidification in China. From 1980 to 2006, Chinese electricity consumption and number of vehicles increased by 10 and 15 times, respectively, much faster than the rise in total energy use. Current Air Pollution Situation and PolicyUnder strong environmental pressure, the Chinese government has targeted the power sector as the most important source of emissions (especially of SO 2 ) endangering regional atmospheric environment from 2006 to 2010, the period of the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" (11th FYP). The 11th FYP set as targets the reduction of national energy intensity (i.e., energy consumption per unit GDP output) and SO 2 emissions of 20% and 10%, respectively, measured in 2010 against 2005 levels. To achieve the targets, se...

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Section: Mapping Of Critical Load For Soil Acidificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO₂ Emissions Enough?

Zhao

Duan

Xing

et al. 2009

Environ. Sci. Technol.

222

184

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“…Ideally, the dynamic model should extend the critical load model so that dynamic processes are taken into account while all other process descriptions are compatible with those in the critical load model. To this end the Very Simple Dynamic model (VSD) has been developed that extends the widely used Simple Mass Balance (SMB) critical load model (Sverdrup and De Vries, 1994) with dynamic soil processes, including cation exchange.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Critical loads and are mostly computed using simple steady state mass balance models (Sverdrup and De Vries, 1994;UBA, 2004). As shown by for example Hettelingh and coworkers (Hettelingh et al, 2001;2007), exceedances of critical loads for sulphur and nitrogen have been reduced and will even be further reduced in the future if current emission reduction agreements come into force.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian calibration of the VSD soil acidification model using European forest monitoring data

Reinds

Oijen²,

Heuvelink

et al. 2008

Geoderma

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Over the past years, Bayesian calibration methods have been successfully applied to calibrate ecosystem models. Bayesian methods combine prior probability distributions of model parameters, based on assumptions about their magnitude and uncertainty, with estimates of the likelihood of the simulation results by comparison with observed values. Bayesian methods also quantify the uncertainty in the updated posterior parameters, which can be used to perform an analysis of model output uncertainty. In this paper, we apply Bayesian techniques to calibrate the VSD soil acidification model for 182 intensively monitored forest sites in Europe. Prior distributions for the model parameters were based on available literature. Since the available literature shows a strong dependence of some VSD parameters on, for example, soil texture, prior distributions were allowed to depend on soil group (i.e. group of soils with similar texture or C/N ratio). The likelihood was computed by comparing modelled soil solution concentrations with observed concentrations for the period 1996-2001. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was used to sample the posterior parameter space. Two calibration approaches were applied. In the singe-site calibration, the plots are calibrated separately to obtain plot-specific posterior distributions. In the multi-site approach priors are assumed constant in space for each soil group, and all plots are calibrated simultaneously yielding one posterior probability distribution for each soil group.Results from the single-site calibrations show that the model performs much better after calibration compared to a run with standard input parameters. Posterior distributions for HAl equilibrium constants narrow down, thus decreasing parameter uncertainty. For base cation weathering of coarse texture soils the posterior distribution is shifted to larger values, indicating an initial underestimation of the weathering rate for these soils. Results for the 2 parameters related to nitrogen modelling show that the nitrogen processes model formulations in VSD may have to be reconsidered as no evidence is found for a relationship between nitrogen immobilization and the C/N ratio of the soil, as assumed in VSD. The multi-site calibration also strongly decreases model error for most model output parameters, but model error is larger than the median model error from the singe-site calibration.Because the large number of plots calibrated at the same time provides very many observations, the Markov chain converges to a very narrow parameter space, leaving little room for posterior parameter uncertainty. For an uncertainty analysis with VSD on the European scale, this study provides promising results, but more work is needed to investigate how the results can be used on a European scale by looking at regional patterns in calibrated parameters from the site calibration or by calibrating for regions instead of all of Europe.

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“…These concentrations are called critical limits and are based on ecotoxicological studies. The standard model for calculation of CL is a steady state model named Simple Mass Balance (SMB) model (Posch et al, 1997;Sverdrup and De Vries, 1994;UBA, 2004). To be able to predict when the steady state will be reached, dynamic models must be used (Alveteg et al, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic modelling of the long term behaviour of cadmium, lead and mercury in Swiss forest soils using CHUM-AM

Rieder

Tipping

Zimmermann

et al. 2014

Science of The Total Environment

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Beat. 2014. Dynamic modelling of the long term behaviour of cadmium, lead and mercury in Swiss forest soils using CHUM-AM.Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. to predict metal concentrations in the soils for the next 1000 years. Assuming current loads concentrations of Cd and Pb showed varying trends (increasing/decreasing) between the soils. Soils rich in organic carbon or with a high pH value showed increasing trends in Cd and Pb concentrations whereas the concentrations in the other soils decreased.In contrast Hg concentrations are predicted to further increase in all soils. Critical limits for Pb and Hg will partly be exceeded by current loads or by the critical loads proposed by the CLRTAP but the critical limits for Cd will rarely be reached within the next 1000 years. In contrast, maximal acceptable deposition will partly lead to concentrations above the critical limits for Pb in soils within the next 400 years, whereas the acceptable deposition of Cd will not lead to concentrations above the proposed critical limits. In conclusion the CHUM-AM model is able to accurately simulate heavy metal (Cd, Pb and Hg) concentrations in Swiss forest soils of various soil properties.3

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Calculating critical loads for acidity with the simple mass balance method

Cited by 168 publications

References 17 publications

Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO₂ Emissions Enough?

Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO₂ Emissions Enough?

Bayesian calibration of the VSD soil acidification model using European forest monitoring data

Dynamic modelling of the long term behaviour of cadmium, lead and mercury in Swiss forest soils using CHUM-AM

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Calculating critical loads for acidity with the simple mass balance method

Cited by 168 publications

References 17 publications

Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO2 Emissions Enough?

Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO2 Emissions Enough?

Bayesian calibration of the VSD soil acidification model using European forest monitoring data

Dynamic modelling of the long term behaviour of cadmium, lead and mercury in Swiss forest soils using CHUM-AM

Contact Info

Product

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Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO₂ Emissions Enough?

Soil Acidification in China: Is Controlling SO₂ Emissions Enough?