Calculating Statistical Orbit Distributions Using GEO Optical Observations with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST)

Abstract

NASA's Orbital Debris measurements program has a goal to characterize the small debris environment in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) region using optical telescopes ("small" refers to objects too small to catalog and track with current operational systems). Traditionally, observations of GEO and near-GEO objects involve following the object with the telescope long enough to obtain an orbit suitable for tracking purposes. Telescopes operating in survey mode, however, randomly observe objects that pass through their field-of-view. Typically, these short-arc observation are inadequate to obtain detailed orbits, but can be used to estimate approximate circular orbit elements (semi-major axis, inclination, and ascending node). From this information, it should be possible to make statistical inferences about the orbital distributions of the GEO population bright enough to be observed by the system. The Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) has been making such statistical surveys of the GEO region for five years. During that time, the telescope has made sufficient observations in enough areas of the GEO belt to have achieved nearly complete coverage. That means that almost all objects in all possible orbits in the GEO and near-GEO region had a non-zero chance of being observed. Some regions (such as those near zero inclination) have had good coverage, while others are poorly covered. Nevertheless, it is possible to remove these statistical biases and reconstruct the orbit populations within the limits of sampling error. In this paper, these statistical techniques and assumptions are described, and the techniques are applied to the current MODEST data set to arrive at our best estimate of the GEO orbit population distribution.