We propose a theoretical framework for predicting the protocol dependence of the jamming transition for frictionless spherical particles that interact via repulsive contact forces. We study isostatic jammed disk packings obtained via two protocols: isotropic compression and simple shear. We show that for frictionless systems, all jammed packings can be obtained via either protocol. However, the probability to obtain a particular jammed packing depends on the packing-generation protocol. We predict the average shear strain required to jam initially unjammed isotropically compressed packings from the density of jammed packings, shape of their basins of attraction, and path traversed in configuration space. We compare our predictions to simulations of shear strain-induced jamming and find quantitative agreement. We also show that the packing fraction range, over which shear strain-induced jamming occurs, tends to zero in the large system limit for frictionless packings with overdamped dynamics.