Please cite this article as: T. Graves, et al., Systematic inference of the long-range dependence and heavy-tail distribution parameters of ARFIMA models, Physica A (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.01.028. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
Highlights• Self-Similarity has two contributions: Long-range dependence and heavy-tailed jumps• Systematic simultaneous estimation of long-range dependence and heavy-tail distribution parameters• Development of a novel Bayesian method for estimation of these two parameters• Method flexible to allow choice of heavy-tailed distribution (e.g. t-or α-stable distributed)• Successful demonstration of effectiveness and accuracy on synthetic data 1
AbstractLong-Range Dependence (LRD) and heavy-tailed distributions are ubiquitous in natural and socio-economic data. Such data can be self-similar whereby both LRD and heavy-tailed distributions contribute to the selfsimilarity as measured by the Hurst exponent. Some methods widely used in the physical sciences separately estimate these two parameters, which can lead to estimation bias. Those which do simultaneous estimation are based on frequentist methods such as Whittle's approximate maximum likelihood estimator. Here we present a new and systematic Bayesian framework for the simultaneous inference of the LRD and heavy-tailed distribution parameters of a parametric ARFIMA model with non-Gaussian innovations. As innovations we use the α-stable and t-distributions which have power law tails. Our algorithm also provides parameter uncertainty estimates. We test our algorithm using synthetic data, and also data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system (GOES) solar X-ray time series. These tests show that our algorithm is able to accurately and robustly estimate the * Corresponding author Email addresses: christian.franzke@uni-hamburg.de (Christian L. E. Franzke)Preprint submitted to Physica A December 14, 2016LRD and heavy-tailed distribution parameters.