Calibrating a large network model describing the transmission dynamics of the human papillomavirus using a particle swarm optimization algorithm in a distributed computing environment

Abstract

Working in large networks applied to epidemiological-type models has led us to design a simple but effective computed distributed environment to perform a large amount of model simulations in a reasonable time in order to study the behavior of these models and to calibrate them. Finding the model parameters that best fit the available data in the designed distributed computing environment becomes a challenge and it is necessary to implement reliable algorithms for model calibration. In this article, we have adapted the random particle swarm optimization algorithm to our distributed computing environment to be applied to the calibration of a papillomavirus transmission dynamics model on a lifetime sexual partners network. And we have obtained a good fitting saving time and calculations compared with the exhaustive searching strategy we have been using so far.

Random network models to predict the long term impact of HPV vaccination on genital warts

“…This network has successfully been applied to the stable state of infections by LR and HR HPV genotypes in Spain [22]. In this study we mimicked the results found in the HPV vaccination campaign of Australia [6,24], and showed very reliable results.…”

“…The random network of sexually transmitted HPV including up to 500, 000 nodes, was developed to fit the data of surveys concerning the number of sexual partners throughout life [22,25]. Standard continuous models are insufficient to accurately predict transmission because they do not account for the individual to individual transmission of the infection, the role of hubs in disseminating the virus through the rest of the population and neither the vaccination campaigns targeting specific groups of individuals.…”

“…The MSM population would also be connected with the heterosexual one by links with women in such a way that every MSM individual has a link with a woman with 5 or more contacts [22]. The assignment of links is then performed by the GRASP algorithm [20,21].…”

“…The assignment of links is then performed by the GRASP algorithm [20,21]. Details about the construction of the whole network have been provided in previous studies [22,25].…”

Modelización con incertidumbre del incremento del uso del comercio electrónico en España utilizando técnicas de epidemiología matemática.

“…Este algoritmo de optimización es una variación del algoritmo PSO clásico donde se introduce la aleatoriedad en el cálculo de la nueva velocidad de las partículas. rPSO ha sido utilizado conéxito para ajustar los parámetros de los modelos con incertidumbre de los datos (Acedo et al, 2017).…”