Calibrating Road Design Guides Using Risk-Based Reliability Analysis

Hussein, Mohamed; Sayed, Tarek; Ismail, Karim; Espen, Adinda Van

doi:10.1061/(asce)te.1943-5436.0000694

Cited by 38 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…In the reliability analysis, the term probability of failure represents the probability of an undesired event exceeding a certain threshold. In road design, researchers have proposed the use of nc to label the probability of a design that does not meet standard [3][4][5]25].…”

Section: Reliability Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If the SSD exceeds the ASD (i.e., LSF < 0), the design is considered to be failed or not complied with the standard design requirements. Reliability theory is used to evaluate the probability of noncompliance ( nc ) which is associated with a measure of probability that the SSD exceeds the ASD or that a specific design does not meet standard requirements [3][4][5]. Finally, nc results obtained through the 2D and the 3D ASD were compared in order to investigate the significance of the safety implications of the ASD modelling approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reliability-Based Analysis of Sight Distance Modelling for Traffic Safety

Santos-Berbel

Essa

Sayed

et al. 2017

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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Sight distance is of the utmost importance for traffic safety. The consideration of three-dimensional (3D) available sight distance (ASD) in geometric design has been supported by several researchers. However, existing ASD estimation methods are two-dimensional (2D) in nature, which do not evaluate varying visibility conditions. This paper compares different methodologies of modelling the ASD. The ASD of 402 horizontal curves, located in twelve in-service two-lane rural highways, was analyzed. Three ASD estimation methods were used which include a 2D method and two different 3D methods. The ASD results obtained through 2D and 3D methodologies are compared. Also, the different conditions of the existing roadside features or geometric elements, under which the 3D ASD estimation is important, were identified. Next, reliability theory is utilized to evaluate the risk level (probability of noncompliance,Pnc) associated with limited sight distance for each ASD modelling method. The results of the comparison emphasized the importance of considering the 3D modelled sight distance when evaluating the associated risk either in highway design or during the service life. In addition, the results indicated that the ASD modelling approach can have a significant impact on the estimation of the safety of highway design.

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Section: Reliability Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability-Based Analysis of Sight Distance Modelling for Traffic Safety

Santos-Berbel

Essa

Sayed

et al. 2017

Journal of Advanced Transportation

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The calibration of horizontal radius and HSO for different Pnc's showed that the current design guides are conservative especially at sharp radii and high design speed [7]. It appears that these results are somehow subjective because increasing the risk (i.e.…”

Section: Reliability Analysis Of Sight Distance In Horizontal Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hussein and Sayed [7] applied reliability analysis (stochastic approach) to take into consideration uncertainty associated with geometric design parameters. They calibrated design charts for Horizontal Sightline Offset-HSO, or in other words: the middle ordinate -M, at different probabilities of non-compliance (Pnc) levels.…”

Section: Reliability Analysis Of Sight Distance In Horizontal Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sight distance restriction on highways’ horizontal curves: insights and sensitivity analysis

Bassan¹

2016

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

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“…Several applications exist for reliability analysis in transportation engineering which include: intersection SD (Easa 2000); evaluation of SD restrictions on horizontal curves (Richl and Sayed 2006;Sarhan and Hassan 2009); design of intergreen intervals at signalized intersections (Easa 1993;Tang et al 2011); safety performance functions that incorporate probability of non-compliance as a design risk measure (Ibrahim and Sayed 2011); optimization of highway cross sections to minimize design risk (Ibrahim et al 2012); risk evaluation of passing SD standards (Llorca et al 2014); and geometric design code calibration (Ismail and Sayed 2009;Hussein et al 2014). …”

Section: R a F Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for evaluating risk of limited sight distance for permitted left-turn movements: case study

2016

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A reliability analysis framework is used to evaluate the risk of limited Sight Distance for permitted left-turn movements due to the presence of opposing left-turn vehicles. Two signalized intersection approaches in the city of Surrey were used as case studies for the framework.Geometric and traffic video data was collected and analyzed using a computer vision tool to extract the input variables probability distributions. The data was used in the reliability analysis where first-order and importance sampling methods were performed. The analysis showed that the probability of non-compliance was considerable at one approach due to its large left-turn lane offset. The analysis also showed that the probability of non-compliance increased substantially when the obstacle vehicle was a bus rather than a passenger car. Moreover, the time gap had a higher impact on the probability of non-compliance compared to speed. Strategies were suggested to overcome the high probability of non-compliance.

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Calibrating Road Design Guides Using Risk-Based Reliability Analysis

Cited by 38 publications

References 11 publications

Reliability-Based Analysis of Sight Distance Modelling for Traffic Safety

Reliability-Based Analysis of Sight Distance Modelling for Traffic Safety

Sight distance restriction on highways’ horizontal curves: insights and sensitivity analysis

Framework for evaluating risk of limited sight distance for permitted left-turn movements: case study

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