Calibration and diagnosticity of confidence in eyewitness identification: Comments on what can be inferred from the low confidence–accuracy correlation.

Juslin, Peter; Olsson, N.; Winman, Anders

doi:10.1037/0278-7393.22.5.1304

Cited by 250 publications

(410 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…One concern might be that confidence ratings are largely uninformative because of the low CA correlation as measured by the point-biserial correlation coefficient. However, the size of that correlation is not particularly informative (Juslin et al, 1996), and, as noted by Wells, Olson, and Charman (2002), ". .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As explained by Juslin, Olsson, and Winman (1996), the previous misunderstanding of this issue arose because a largely uninformative statistic (namely, the point-biserial correlation coefficient) was used to measure the relationship of interest. The problem with that approach is that the correlation coefficient can be very low even when the relationship between confidence and accuracy is very strong.…”

Section: Confidence and Accuracy In Eyewitness Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using a more appropriate calibration approach, recent laboratory studies have shown that there is in fact a strong relationship between confidence and accuracy when eyewitnesses identify someone from a lineup (e.g., Brewer, Keast, & Rishworth, 2002;Brewer & Wells, 2006;Juslin et al, 1996). For example, Brewer and Wells (2006) summarized their findings on the confidenceaccuracy (CA) relationship as follows: "Despite the modest CA correlations, plotting confidence against proportion correct for choosers clearly indicated a positive relationship between confidence and accuracy for both sets of stimulus materials under all experimental conditions" (p. 22).…”

Section: Confidence and Accuracy In Eyewitness Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of eyewitness memory: Comparing the diagnostic accuracy of simultaneous versus sequential lineups.

Mickes¹,

Flowe²,

Wixted³

2012

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied

190

349

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A police lineup presents a real-world signal-detection problem because there are two possible states of the world (the suspect is either innocent or guilty), some degree of information about the true state of the world is available (the eyewitness has some degree of memory for the perpetrator), and a decision is made (identifying the suspect or not). A similar state of affairs applies to diagnostic tests in medicine because, in a patient, the disease is either present or absent, a diagnostic test yields some degree of information about the true state of affairs, and a decision is made about the presence or absence of the disease. In medicine, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is the standard method for assessing diagnostic accuracy. By contrast, in the eyewitness memory literature, this powerful technique has never been used. Instead, researchers have attempted to assess the diagnostic performance of different lineup procedures using methods that cannot identify the better procedure (e.g., by computing a diagnosticity ratio). Here, we describe the basics of ROC analysis, explaining why it is needed and showing how to use it to measure the performance of different lineup procedures. To illustrate the unique advantages of this technique, we also report 3 ROC experiments that were designed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of simultaneous versus sequential lineups. According to our findings, the sequential procedure appears to be inferior to the simultaneous procedure in discriminating between the presence versus absence of a guilty suspect in a lineup.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Confidence and Accuracy In Eyewitness Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Confidence and Accuracy In Eyewitness Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of eyewitness memory: Comparing the diagnostic accuracy of simultaneous versus sequential lineups.

Mickes¹,

Flowe²,

Wixted³

2012

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied

190

349

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Following the approach used by Brewer and Day (2005), we analysed the correlation between confidence and accuracy for each age group using rpb. These results should be interpreted cautiously, as rpb is known to underestimate the relationship between confidence and accuracy (see Juslin, et al, 1996). As can be seen in Figure 4, confidence and accuracy were significantly associated for adults (rpb = .24, p < .05, two-tailed) and older children (rpb = .37, p < .001, two-tailed), whereas they were not associated for younger children (rpb = .08, p > .05).…”

Section: Confidence and Accuracymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Research using the point-biserial correlation coefficient to examine the relationship between confidence and accuracy has indicated that children (up to 12 years old) have greater difficulty monitoring the correctness of their answers relative to adults (Leippe et al, 1991;Parker & Carranza, 1989;Paker, Haverfield & Baker-Thomas, 1986;Parker & Ryan, 1993) and adolescents (Brewer & Day, 2005). However, this method is known to underestimate the confidenceaccuracy relationship (see Juslin, Olsson, & Winman, 1996). Research using an alternative method, the calibration approach, which assesses whether confidence ratings provide a probabilistic estimate of accuracy, children's meta-cognitive judgments have also been found to be less accurate than adults (Keast, Brewer, & Wells, 2007).…”

Section: Study Aimsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of age-related changes in lineup performance

Humphries

Flowe

2015

Journal of Experimental Child Psychology

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In the basic face memory literature, support has been found for the late maturation hypothesis, which holds that face recognition ability is not fully developed until at least adolescence. Support for the late maturation hypothesis in the criminal lineup identification literature, however, has been equivocal, because of the analytic approach that has been used to examine age-related changes in identification performance. Recently, Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) analysis was applied for the first time in the adult eyewitness memory literature to examine whether memory sensitivity differs across different types of lineup tests (Gronlund et al. 2012;Mickes, Flowe, & Wixted, 2012). ROC analysis allows for the separation of memory sensitivity from response bias in the analysis of recognition data. Here, we make the first ROC-based comparison of adults' and children's (5-6 years and 9-10 years) memory performance on lineups by reanalysing data from Humphries, Holliday, & Flowe 3 (2012). In line with the late maturation hypothesis, memory sensitivity was significantly greater for adults compared to young children. Memory sensitivity for older children was similar to adults. The results indicate that the late maturation hypothesis can be generalized to account for age-related performance differences on an eyewitness memory task. The implications for developmental eyewitness memory research are discussed.

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Psychological Experimentation Addressing Practical Concerns

Nickerson

Pew²

2003

Handbook of Psychology

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In this chapter we focus on experimental research that has been motivated explicitly by practical concerns or that has yielded results the practical implications of which are relatively direct. Following some comments about the distinction between basic and applied research, and about indications of a recently growing interest in applications, we describe the historical roots of applied experimental psychology and the status of the field today. We note studies in several applications areas illustrating the broad range of topics that applied experimentation has addressed. We give examples of challenges for applied experimentation that come from psychological, social or technological concerns, and we argue the necessity of clearly communicating the practical implications of experimentation if they are to applied to good effect.

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Calibration and diagnosticity of confidence in eyewitness identification: Comments on what can be inferred from the low confidence–accuracy correlation.

Cited by 250 publications

References 41 publications

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of eyewitness memory: Comparing the diagnostic accuracy of simultaneous versus sequential lineups.

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of eyewitness memory: Comparing the diagnostic accuracy of simultaneous versus sequential lineups.

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of age-related changes in lineup performance

Psychological Experimentation Addressing Practical Concerns

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