Calibration of FARSITE simulator in northern Iranian forests

Abstract

Abstract. Wildfire simulators based on empirical or physical models need to be locally calibrated and validated when used under conditions that differ from those where the simulators were originally developed. This study aims to calibrate the FARSITE fire spread model considering a set of recent wildfires that occurred in northern Iranian forests. Sitespecific fuel models in the study areas were selected by sampling the main natural vegetation type complexes and assigning standard fuel models. Overall, simulated fires presented reliable outputs that accurately replicated the observed fire perimeters and behavior. Standard fuel models of Scott and Burgan (2005) afforded better accuracy in the simulated fire perimeters than the standard fuel models of Anderson (1982). The best match between observed and modeled burned areas was observed on herbaceous fuel models. Fire modeling showed a high potential for estimating spatial variability in fire spread and behavior in the study areas. This work represents a first step in the application of fire spread modeling in northern Iran for wildfire risk monitoring and management.

Predicting wildfire spread and behaviour in Mediterranean landscapes

“…Urban areas with very low fuel load (NB) 0.00 0.00 À1.00 20.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 J the number of fire events analysed in this study still does not fully represent the complexity of fire conditions and vegetation in the Mediterranean basin context, the broad gradient of the events considered highlights the potential for applying spatially explicit fire modelling in Mediterranean environments. Overall, modelling fire spread and behaviour is a complex task owing to a set of factors, including spatial and temporal heterogeneity in weather and fuels and fire suppression effects on fire propagation (Mutlu et al 2008;Alexander and Cruz 2013;Taylor et al 2013;Jahdi et al 2015). Several previous studies validated fire spread simulators by comparing simulated fire propagation against historical fire data (Perry 1998;Fujioka 2002;Arca et al 2007b;Filippi et al 2014;Milne et al 2014;Jahdi et al 2015).…”

“…In recent years, much effort has been dedicated to developing an alternative to standard fuel models (Deeming et al 1972;Anderson 1982;Scott and Burgan 2005). In fact, although FARSITE provides reliable results in fire behaviour modelling over landscapes containing fuel types consistent with the original standard fuel models of Anderson (1982) and Scott and Burgan (2005) designed for US fuel types, extrapolation to other ecosystems is not always an easy and reliable task and can result in biased outputs (Pastor et al 2003;Arca et al 2007b;Arroyo et al 2008;Jahdi et al 2015Jahdi et al , 2016. Several customised fuel models have been recently developed to better represent the fuel characteristics of the Mediterranean vegetation in Greece (Dimitrakopoulos 2002), the medium-height (maquis) and low and degraded shrublands (garrigue) communities in Italy (Arca et al 2007b(Arca et al , 2009, the shrub vegetation in Turkey (Bilgili and Saglam 2003;Saglam et al 2008), Pinus pinaster stands in Portugal (Fernandes 2001;Cruz and Fernandes 2008), and the grass, shrub and canopy fuel types in Spain (De Luis et al 2004;Rodríguez y Silva and Molina-Martínez 2012;Vega-Garcia et al 2014).…”

Modeling of fire spread in sagebrush steppe using FARSITE: an approach to improving input data and simulation accuracy

“…Generalized maps of fuel beds, such as from LAND-FIRE, may produce simulated fire-spread that differs considerably from observed patterns, as we demonstrated for the Soda Wildfire, and use of LANDFIRE FBFM maps is best preceded by assessment and/or validation prior to application. The model-accuracy assessment and alternative method for FBFM selection we describe are useful advances beyond the field-vegetation map-based accuracy assessments of MTT and FARSITE developed for other semiarid settings, e.g., shrublands of the Mediterranean or Iranian grasslands (Arca et al 2007;Jahdi et al 2015Jahdi et al , 2016Salis et al 2016Salis et al , 2021. The analysis conducted here may not be feasible for most site-specific applications.…”

Surface Wildfire Regime and Simulation-Based Wildfire Exposure in the Golestan National Park, NE Iran

“…Although the fire regime consisted of the summer, fall, and a mixture of the two in the study area, wildfires in recent years have burned well outside of the typical fire season. According to Jahdi [60] et al the three-month wildfire season in northern Iran has become longer and now lasts six months. Other factors contributing to longer wildfire seasons include extended drought, dieback of Persian oak trees (Quercus castaneifolia C. A.…”