Call for independent monitoring of disease outbreak preparedness

Jonas, Olga; Katz, Rebecca; Yansen, Shana; Geddes, Katrina; Jha, Ashish K.

doi:10.1136/bmj.k2269

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Epidemics are among the most costly and destructive natural hazards globally [1,2]. Currently humanitarian action to epidemics is focused on response rather than preparedness and prevention [3][4][5][6]. Timely detection of disease cases in combination with risk assessment can support prevention measures and therefore contribute to early containment of outbreaks [4,6].…”

Section: Epidemic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…pathogen transmission from a reservoir to a new host) is increasing due to degrading ecosystems, intensification of travel and trade, climate change, population growth, and a wide variety of other factors [3,6]. It is therefore imperative to increase our understanding of disease risk distribution at the most local level possible, so impacts can be reduced accordingly [4][5][6].…”

Section: Epidemic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines

Hierink

Margutti²,

Homberg³

et al. 2022

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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Epidemics are among the most costly and destructive natural hazards globally. To reduce the impacts of infectious disease outbreaks, the development of a risk index for infectious diseases can be effective, by shifting infectious disease control from emergency response to early detection and prevention. In this study, we introduce a methodology to construct and validate an epidemic risk index using only open data, with a specific focus on scalability. The external validation of our risk index makes use of distance sampling to correct for underreporting of infections, which is often a major source of biases, based on geographical accessibility to health facilities. We apply this methodology to assess the risk of dengue in the Philippines. The results show that the computed dengue risk correlates well with standard epidemiological metrics, i.e. dengue incidence (p = 0.002). Here, dengue risk constitutes of the two dimensions susceptibility and exposure. Susceptibility was particularly associated with dengue incidence (p = 0.048) and dengue case fatality rate (CFR) (p = 0.029). Exposure had lower correlations to dengue incidence (p = 0.193) and CFR (p = 0.162). Highest risk indices were seen in the south of the country, mainly among regions with relatively high susceptibility to dengue outbreaks. Our findings reflect that the modelled epidemic risk index is a strong indication of sub-national dengue disease patterns and has therefore proven suitability for disease risk assessments in the absence of timely epidemiological data. The presented methodology enables the construction of a practical, evidence-based tool to support public health and humanitarian decision-making processes with simple, understandable metrics. The index overcomes the main limitations of existing indices in terms of construction and actionability.

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Section: Epidemic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Epidemic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines

Hierink

Margutti²,

Homberg³

et al. 2022

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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“…They describe how, despite various initiatives, we are still far from secure, with gaps in funding, monitoring global capacity, and global leadership. Jonas and colleagues recently called for a global independent mechanism to monitor outbreak preparedness to break the usual cycle of panic and neglect 4. Such a mechanism should focus on country level preparedness; improving science, technology, and access; identifying and communicating risks; and strengthening global mechanisms 5…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Attention to global preparedness and coordination mechanisms is important 46. The recent Ebola and Nipah outbreaks, however, show that the immediate reaction of frontline health workers and the community where the first cases occur is equally important 7.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Is the world ready for the next pandemic threat?

Damme

Put

Devadasan

et al. 2018

BMJ

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Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: a case study for dengue in the Philippines

Hierink

Margutti²,

Homberg³

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Epidemics are among the most costly and destructive natural hazards globally. To reduce the impacts of infectious disease outbreaks, the development of a risk index for infectious diseases can be effective, by shifting infectious disease control from emergency response to early detection and prevention. In this study, we introduce a methodology to construct and validate an epidemic risk index using only open data, with a specific focus on scalability. The external validation of our risk index makes use of distance sampling to correct for underreporting of infections, which is often a major source of biases, based on geographical accessibility to health facilities. We apply this methodology to assess the risk of dengue in the Philippines. The results show that the computed dengue risk correlates well with standard epidemiological metrics, i.e. dengue incidence (p = 0.002). Here, dengue risk constitutes of the two dimensions susceptibility and exposure. Susceptibility was particularly associated with dengue incidence (p = 0.047) and dengue case fatality rate (CFR) (p= 0.029). Exposure had lower correlations to dengue incidence (p = 0.211) and CFR (p = 0.163). Highest risk indices were seen in the south of the country, mainly among regions with relatively high susceptibility to dengue outbreaks. Our findings reflect that the modelled epidemic risk index is a strong indication of sub-national dengue disease patterns and has therefore proven suitability for disease risk assessments in the absence of timely epidemiological data. The presented methodology enables the construction of a practical, evidence-based tool to support public health and humanitarian decision making processes with simple, understandable metrics. The index overcomes the main limitations of existing indices in terms of construction and actionability.

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Call for independent monitoring of disease outbreak preparedness

Abstract: It’s time for a system of accountability to break the cycle of panic and neglect, say Olga Jonas and colleagues

Cited by 4 publications

References 8 publications

Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines

Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: A case study for dengue in the Philippines

Is the world ready for the next pandemic threat?

Constructing and validating a transferable epidemic risk index in data scarce environments using open data: a case study for dengue in the Philippines

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