Can 24 h of ambulatory ECG be used to triage patients to extended monitoring?

Abstract

BackgroundAccess to long‐term ambulatory recording to detect atrial fibrillation (AF) is limited for economical and practical reasons. We aimed to determine whether 24 h ECG (24hECG) data can predict AF detection on extended cardiac monitoring.MethodsWe included all US patients from 2020, aged 17–100 years, who were monitored for 2–30 days using the PocketECG device (MEDICALgorithmics), without AF ≥30 s on the first day (n = 18,220, mean age 64.4 years, 42.4% male). The population was randomly split into equal training and testing datasets. A Lasso model was used to predict AF episodes ≥30 s occurring on days 2–30.ResultsThe final model included maximum heart rate, number of premature atrial complexes (PACs), fastest rate during PAC couplets and triplets, fastest rate during premature ventricular couplets and number of ventricular tachycardia runs ≥4 beats, and had good discrimination (ROC statistic 0.7497, 95% CI 0.7336–0.7659) in the testing dataset. Inclusion of age and sex did not improve discrimination. A model based only on age and sex had substantially poorer discrimination, ROC statistic 0.6542 (95% CI 0.6364–0.6720). The prevalence of observed AF in the testing dataset increased by quintile of predicted risk: 0.4% in Q1, 2.7% in Q2, 6.2% in Q3, 11.4% in Q4, and 15.9% in Q5. In Q1, the negative predictive value for AF was 99.6%.ConclusionBy using 24hECG data, long‐term monitoring for AF can safely be avoided in 20% of an unselected patient population whereas an overall risk of 9% in the remaining 80% of the population warrants repeated or extended monitoring.

Diagnostic reliability of monitoring for premature atrial and ventricular complexes

“…Premature atrial complexes and PVCs are highly prevalent in the general population. 32–34 Even modestly raised PAC frequencies 1 , 2 are associated with concurrent and incident atrial fibrillation, 35 while low levels of PVCs predict the risk of HF. 10 In the light of this, current consensus documents suggest imaging, electrical, and genetic evaluation in patients with ≥500 PVCs/24 h to exclude underlying disease, and screening for AF and sleep apnoea in patients with ≥500 PACs.…”