Can crop-climate models be accurate and precise? A case study for wheat production in Denmark

Uncertainty Propagation in Crop Adaptation Responses to Climate Change: A Modelling Perspective

“…However, increasing the number of parameters and variables in these climate-and process-based crop models increases their uncertainty of the estimated yield of a specific crop cultivar for a target environment (Figure 1). The magnitude of this uncertainty varies from model to model and depends on the approach (i.e., empirical or process-based) used to model the effect of climate change on crop physiology (e.g., heat stress) or on grain development and yield estimations [3][4][5][6][7][8]. Moreover, the sensitivity of crop models to one environmental parameter (e.g., temperature) would also influence the magnitude of the effect of other parameters on yield formation.…”

“…Crop model simulation framework with different sources of uncertainty affecting model predictions. Note: Further details of crop models are detailed in previous studies[3][4][5][6][7][8].…”