“…Others have projected distribution-neutral growth but chosen initial distributions with different levels of inequality (Ravallion, 2013;Edward and Sumner, 2014). Other studies, which are most closely related to the approach taken by this paper, simulate additional distributional changes, by extrapolating the trend in the Q5/Q1 ratio (Edward and Sumner, 2014;Hillebrand, 2008;Higgins and Williamson,2002), the Palma ratio (Chandy et al, 2013), or the income share of the bottom 40% (Ncube et al, 2014). A previous version of this paper used differences in growth rates of the bottom 40% and the mean to project poverty towards 2030 (Lakner et al 2014), similar to Hoy and Samman (2015).…”