Can El Nińo amplify the solar forcing of climate?

Ruzmaikin, A.

doi:10.1029/1999gl900535

Cited by 29 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Beck et al, 2018; Kravchinsky et al, 2013). El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a leading source of inter-annual climate variability over large regions of the globe (Ruzmaikin, 1999; Xie et al, 2009). It balances the water vapor transport and atmospheric circulation via feedbacks between surface wind and sea surface temperature (SST) distributions in the eastern and western Pacific.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking Holocene East Asian monsoon variability to solar forcing and ENSO activity: Multi-proxy evidence from a peatland in Northeastern China

Sharifi

Chambers

et al. 2021

The Holocene

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High-resolution proxy-based paleoenvironmental records derived from peatlands provide important insights into climate changes over centennial to millennial timescales. In this study, we present a composite climatic index (CCI) for the Hani peatland from northeastern China, based on an innovative combination of pollen-spore, phytolith, and grain size data. We use the CCI to reconstruct variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity during the Holocene. This is accomplished with complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), REDFIT, and cross-wavelet coherency analysis to reveal the periodicities (frequencies) of the multi-proxy derived CCI sequences and to assess potential external forcing of the EASM. The results showed that periodicities of ca. 300–350, 475, 600, 1075, and 1875 years were present in the Hani CCI sequence. Those periodicities are consistent with previously published periodicities in East Asia, indicating they are a product of external climate controls over an extensive region, rather than random variations caused by peatland-specific factors. Cross-wavelet coherency analysis between the decomposed CCI components and past solar activity reconstructions suggests that variations of solar irradiation are most likely responsible for the cyclic characteristics at 500-year frequency. We propose a conceptual model to interpret how the sun regulates the monsoon climate via coupling with oceanic and atmospheric circulations. It seems that slight solar irradiation changes can be amplified by coupling with ENSO events, which result in a significant impact on the regional climate in the East Asian monsoon area.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking Holocene East Asian monsoon variability to solar forcing and ENSO activity: Multi-proxy evidence from a peatland in Northeastern China

Sharifi

Chambers

et al. 2021

The Holocene

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“…For example, Higginson et al [2004] showed that El Niño events tend to occur ∼2–3 years before and after sunspot peaks, producing a mean periodicity with roughly half the wavelength of the solar cycle. Presumably, while El Niños and associated IOD episodes act as the primary mechanisms for the delivery of SST‐linked rainfall anomalies to East Africa, the solar cycle might modulate the frequency of their occurrence through stochastic resonance between the 5.5 and 11‐year variations [ Ruzmaikin , 1999], possibly by warming SSTs in the tropical oceans and/or by altering atmospheric circulation systems (Table 3) [ Higginson et al , 2004]. By revealing the presence of significant decadal periodicities within the NINO4 index, as well as in the lake level series, our wavelet analysis lends further support to this hypothesis (Figure 8).…”

Section: Possible Causal Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sunspots, El Niño, and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa

et al. 2007

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[1] An association of high sunspot numbers with rises in the level of Lake Victoria, East Africa, has been the focus of many investigations and vigorous debate during the last century. In this paper, we show that peaks in the $11-year sunspot cycle were accompanied by Victoria level maxima throughout the 20th century, due to the occurrence of positive rainfall anomalies $1 year before solar maxima. Similar patterns also occurred in at least five other East African lakes, which indicates that these sunspot-rainfall relationships were broadly regional in scale. Although irradiance fluctuations associated with the sunspot cycle are weak, their effects on tropical rainfall could be amplified through interactions with sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation systems, including ENSO. If this Sun-rainfall relationship persists in the future, then sunspot cycles can be used for long-term prediction of precipitation anomalies and associated outbreaks of insect-borne disease in much of East Africa. In that case, unusually wet rainy seasons and

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“…17 As an example, we present a situation where extreme weather conditions related to the El Nino cycle of the west coast of the South and Central America through a series of atmospheric and oceanic transfers lead to a dramatic weather response at the opposite end of the globe in the North Atlantic Ocean. Note that the researchers indicate a possible link between the solar activity and the El Nino/LaNina effects shaping the climate anomalies [42].…”

Section: Methods Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

On possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets: Necessary conditions and probable scenarios

Pustil'Nik

Din

2013

Astrophys. Bull.

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Abstract. We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area-specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysis methods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum . We demonstrate a reliable manifestation of the influence of space weather on prices, discovered in the statistics of intervals between the price hikes and phase price asymmetry. We show that the effects of phase price asymmetry persist even during the early modern period in the U.S. in the production of the durum wheat. Within the proposed approach, we analyze the statistics of depopulation in the eighteenth and nineteenth century Iceland, induced by the famine due to a sharp livestock reduction owing to, in its turn, the lack of foodstuff due to the local weather anomalies. A high statistical significance of temporal matching of these events with the periods of extreme solar activity is demonstrated. We discuss the possible consequences of the observed global climate change in the formation of new areas of risk farming, sensitive to space weather. HISTORICAL INTRODUCTIONThe problem of the possible influence of solar activity on the Earth's agriculture has an almost 300 year-long history. One of its first references appears in the description of the British Royal Society (the analog of the Academy of Sciences) by a famous professor of theology and, concurrently, the father of European satire Jonathan Swift in his book devoted to the third Gulliver's Travel to the island of Laputa [1]. In this keen satire, Swift, describing the main activities of the Laputans 1 mentioned the following as their two main phobias:1) Under the influence of a heavenly body (a comet), the Earth, got caught in its glowing tail, will undergo a period of "global warming," threatening imminent death to all living creatures;2) The Sun will be covered with its own feces (spots) and will cease sending the light and 1 As Swift asserted, the Laputans devoted most of their time to the attempts of studying the matter using super-strong magnets and researching the skies with giant telescopes. We can't but note that these engagements do ever since (for 300 years by now) hold the leading positions in the scientific programs ventured by mankind.2 warmth to Earth (followed by t...

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Can El Nińo amplify the solar forcing of climate?

Cited by 29 publications

References 24 publications

Linking Holocene East Asian monsoon variability to solar forcing and ENSO activity: Multi-proxy evidence from a peatland in Northeastern China

Linking Holocene East Asian monsoon variability to solar forcing and ENSO activity: Multi-proxy evidence from a peatland in Northeastern China

Sunspots, El Niño, and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa

On possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets: Necessary conditions and probable scenarios

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