Can increased accessibility from emerging mobility services create a car-lite future? Evidence from Singapore using LUTI microsimulation

Abstract

Emerging mobility services are being increasingly regulated, with several cities testing policy interventions in pilot study areas before a metro-wide implementation. This is motivated by the expectation that increased accessibility from these services might induce households to relinquish private vehicles, and demonstrate the viability of car-lite strategies that could be expanded to metro-wide areas. However well-intended, the increased attractiveness of such test areas might also increase neighborhood attractiveness in ways that cause gentrification. This study uses an agent-based LUTI microsimulation model to examine the effect of accessibility improvements on private mobility holdings, both directly and through the mediating effect of housing choice. A scenario-based design is adopted, wherein different types of market responses to a pilot car-lite policy are modeled through various assumptions of changes in model parameters. Three study areas with different characteristics are chosen to explore the spatial variation in policy effects. Our findings indicate that in-movers are more likely to be higher-income households that have a comparatively higher car ownership rate. Such unintended negative consequences like gentrification can significantly undermine the potential boosts to vehicle-free behavior inside the study area. As a possible step to mitigate such consequences, we suggest that emerging mobility regulation strategies anticipate and address the likely response of the housing market and urban redevelopment opportunities.

Implications of Autonomous Vehicles for Accessibility and Transport Equity: A Framework Based on Literature

“…Another important assumption that is often coupled with ride-sourcing systems deployment is the full automation and high market penetration of AVs (e.g., [43][44][45][46][47]). Indeed, the full automation (SAE Level 5; [30]) is expected to optimize the operation of sharing schemes based on AVs that pick-up and drop-off users on-demand and manage to park autonomously.…”

framework to generate virtual cities as sandboxes for land use-transport interaction models

“…is project was initiated in 2010, and is still under active development, which gave us the opportunity to address some of the aforementioned concerns from the LUTI modeling community. Our recent efforts demonstrate how SimMobility can be used to understand the impact of automated mobility on housing-mobility choices (Basu and Ferreira 2020b;Basu and Ferreira 2020a), private vehicle ownership (Basu and Ferreira 2020c), and the future of mass transit (Basu et al 2018a), in addition to highlighting the potential for sustainable mobility futures (Oke et al 2019).…”

Examining the effects of Automated Mobility-on-Demand services on public transport systems using an agent-based simulation approach

“…We assume that the AMOD service is exclusively a ride-sharing system (rather than a car-sharing system), providing both single and shared rides. Singapore, a PT-dependent city, with several plans for developing car-free town centres (Basu and Ferreira, 2020;Zhou et al, 2021;Times, 2016) towards a private car-free nation (LTA, 2016) is chosen as a case study.…”