A pre-analysis plan was filed in April 2017. Elizabeth Burland, Meghan Oster, and Shwetha Raghuraman provided outstanding research assistance. Results, information and opinions solely represent the analysis, information and opinions of the authors and are not endorsed by, or reflect the views or positions of, grantors, the National Bureau of Economic Research, MDE and CEPI or any employee thereof. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.