Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?

Abstract

Rogue waves are ocean surface waves larger than the surrounding sea that can pose a danger to ships and offshore structures. They are often deemed unpredictable without complex measurement of the wavefield and computationally intensive calculation, which is infeasible in most applications; consequently, there a need for fast predictors. Here we collate, quality control, and analyze the largest data set of single‐point field measurements from surface following wave buoys to search for predictors of rogue wave occurrence. We find that analysis of the sea state parameters in bulk yields no predictors, as the subset of seas containing rogue waves sits within the set of seas without. However, spectral bandwidth parameters of rogue seas display different probability distributions to normal seas, but these parameters are rarely provided in wave forecasts. When location is accounted for, trends can be identified in the occurrence of rogue waves as a function of the average sea state characteristics at that location. These trends follow a power law relationship with the characteristic sea state parameters: mean significant wave height and mean zero upcrossing wave period. We find that frequency of occurrence of rogue waves and their generating mechanism is not spatially uniform, and each location is likely to have its own unique sensitivities, which increase in the coastal seas. We conclude that forecastable predictors of rogue wave occurrence will need to be location specific and reflective of their generation mechanism. Therefore, given location and a sufficiently long historical record of sea state characteristics, the likelihood of occurrence can be obtained for mariners and offshore operators.

Systematic Review Shows That Work Done by Storm Waves Can Be Misinterpreted as Tsunami-Related Because Commonly Used Hydrodynamic Equations Are Flawed

“…It is difficult to know H max with precision because although the population of waves approximates a Rayleigh distribution, the upper tail does not conform (e.g., Krogstad, 1985), and the H max /H s ratio varies with the number of waves considered (Michel, 1999). Generally, however, when computed on intervals of 20 min to an hour (the common integration time for buoy data), H max is approximately 2 H s (Krogstad, 1985;Cattrell et al, 2018;Oliveira et al, 2018).…”

A statistical analysis of rogue waves in the southern North Sea

“…Since the late 1990s, there has been an increasing number of studies analyzing observed rogue waves or studying potential mechanisms for rogue wave generation. Such studies comprise the description and analysis of measurements of individual rogue wave events (e.g., Skourup et al, 1997;Haver, 2004;Magnusson and Donelan, 2013) or the description of rogue wave statistics from longer records (e.g., Chien et al, 2002;Mori et al, 2002;Stansell, 2004;Baschek and Imai, 2011;Christou and Ewans, 2014). Several studies contain attempts to identify potential physical mechanisms of rogue wave formation, such as second-order nonlinearities (Fedele et al, 2016), modulational instability (Benjamin, 1967) caused by nonlinear wave focusing (Janssen, 2003), or the directionality of the wave spectrum (Onorato et al, 2002).…”

Extreme environmental forcing on the container ship SS El Faro

“…However, for an operational wave model, defining C 4 using Equation (12), a six dimensional integral, is too computationally expensive (Cattrell et al 2018). Rogue waves most likely occur when the spectrum is narrow banded.…”

“…significant wave height, wave periods and directions). These are determined by response amplitude operators (RAO; Cattrell et al 2018). Unfortunately, the RAOs are not available for the SS El Faro hence this manuscript focusses on the environmental conditions that the vessel experienced.…”