Can species distribution models be used for risk assessment analyses of fungal plant pathogens? A case study with three Botryosphaeriaceae species

Batista, Eduardo; Lopes, Anabela; Miranda, Pedro; Alves, Artur

doi:10.1007/s10658-022-02587-7

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Further, our re-analysis of published global survey data 14 , 71 suggests that the relative abundance of some important soil-borne fungal taxa such as Penicillium spp., which damage fruit quality and production, are strongly associated with shifts in temperature and organic matter. Similarly, range expansion for Botryosphaeria dothidea and Neufusicoccum parvum resulting in more frequent and intensive disease outbreaks is predicted to be linked to climate change 72 . Conversely, the relative abundance of other soil-borne pathogens, such as the Oomycota taxa Phytophthora spp.…”

Section: Climate Change and Plant Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward

et al. 2023

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Plant disease outbreaks pose significant risks to global food security and environmental sustainability worldwide, and result in the loss of primary productivity and biodiversity that negatively impact the environmental and socio-economic conditions of affected regions. Climate change further increases outbreak risks by altering pathogen evolution and host–pathogen interactions and facilitating the emergence of new pathogenic strains. Pathogen range can shift, increasing the spread of plant diseases in new areas. In this Review, we examine how plant disease pressures are likely to change under future climate scenarios and how these changes will relate to plant productivity in natural and agricultural ecosystems. We explore current and future impacts of climate change on pathogen biogeography, disease incidence and severity, and their effects on natural ecosystems, agriculture and food production. We propose that amendment of the current conceptual framework and incorporation of eco-evolutionary theories into research could improve our mechanistic understanding and prediction of pathogen spread in future climates, to mitigate the future risk of disease outbreaks. We highlight the need for a science–policy interface that works closely with relevant intergovernmental organizations to provide effective monitoring and management of plant disease under future climate scenarios, to ensure long-term food and nutrient security and sustainability of natural ecosystems.

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Section: Climate Change and Plant Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward

et al. 2023

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“…Our analyses included a single fungal species (Russula cyanoxantha, Coprinus disseminatus) per orchid species (Cymbidium kanran, Epipogium roseum), due to the lack of data on the distribution of fungi symbiotic to many other taxa. Such limitations are also highlighted in a similar modeling of the occurrence of plant-pathogenic (fungi (Batista et al, 2023).…”

Section: Importance Of Identification Distributional Data and Taxonom...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The long-term survival and climatic distribution of mixotrophic and mycoheterotrophic orchids

Kolanowska,

Ruszkiewicz-Michalska

2023

Acta Soc Bot Pol

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Orchid germination depends on their fungal partner; however, there are no broadscale analyses evaluating the actual overlap between orchids and their mycorrhizal symbionts. The aim of this research was to evaluate the importance of mycorrhizal fungi for the occurrence of two species of orchids using ecological niche modeling (ENM). Two sets of future orchid distribution models were created – the first one was based on bioclimatic data only, and the second one included information about the distribution of fungal symbionts. The jackknife test indicated that for both mixotrophic and mycoheterotrophic orchids, the presence of symbiotic fungi is crucial for their occurrence, and ENM analyses revealed that both orchids face habitat loss as a result of predicted changes in climate. In the case of the mixotrophic orchid, the presence of symbiotic fungi can compensate for unfavorable climatic conditions. Problems and limitations in modeling the distributions of species are discussed in terms of the symbiotic relationship.

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“…Acknowledging and, when possible, addressing these limitations still makes HSMs a powerful toolbox for understanding the drivers of the species' realised and potential distributions (sensu Jackson & Overpeck, 2000). For this reason, HSMs are still widely applied in several research fields, including biogeography (Duffy et al, 2017; Wasof et al, 2015), climate change ecology (Jarvie & Svenning, 2018), conservation biology (Newbold, 2018; Santini et al, 2021), invasion ecology (Bazzichetto et al, 2021; Da Re et al, 2020; Hattab et al, 2017) and pathogen risk assessment (Batista et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

USE it: Uniformly sampling pseudo‐absences within the environmental space for applications in habitat suitability models

Da Re,

Tordoni,

Lenoir

et al. 2023

Methods Ecol Evol

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Habitat suitability models infer the geographical distribution of species using occurrence data and environmental variables. While data on species presence are increasingly accessible, the difficulty of confirming real absences in the field often forces researchers to generate them in silico. To this aim, pseudo‐absences are commonly sampled randomly across the study area (i.e. the geographical space). However, this introduces sample location bias (i.e. the sampling is unbalanced towards the most frequent habitats occurring within the geographical space) and favours class overlap (i.e. overlap between environmental conditions associated with species presences and pseudo‐absences) in the training dataset. To mitigate this, we propose an alternative methodology (i.e. the uniform approach) that systematically samples pseudo‐absences within a portion of the environmental space delimited by a kernel‐based filter, which seeks to minimise the number of false absences included in the training dataset. We simulated 50 virtual species and modelled their distribution using training datasets assembled with the presence points of the virtual species and pseudo‐absences collected using the uniform approach and other approaches that randomly sample pseudo‐absences within the geographical space. We compared the predictive performance of habitat suitability models and evaluated the extent of sample location bias and class overlap associated with the different sampling strategies. Results indicated that the uniform approach: (i) effectively reduces sample location bias and class overlap; (ii) provides comparable predictive performance to sampling strategies carried out in the geographical space; and (iii) ensures gathering pseudo‐absences adequately representing the environmental conditions available across the study area. We developed a set of R functions in an accompanying R package called USE to disseminate the uniform approach.

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Can species distribution models be used for risk assessment analyses of fungal plant pathogens? A case study with three Botryosphaeriaceae species

Cited by 10 publications

References 56 publications

Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward

Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward

The long-term survival and climatic distribution of mixotrophic and mycoheterotrophic orchids

USE it: Uniformly sampling pseudo‐absences within the environmental space for applications in habitat suitability models

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