Can stochastic consumer phase models in QMRA be simplified to a single factor?

Neves, M. Inês; Mungai, Sylvester N.; Nauta, Maarten

doi:10.1016/j.mran.2017.09.001

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Currently no such data unique to sheep meat is available, and it was felt that consumer cooking processes for sheep meat are likely to differ greatly to other meat products. Neves et al (2018) find that such simplifications of the consumer phase can often result in an overestimation of the impact of consumer interventions, suggesting that the posterior distributions of p hc and p hh may be somewhat overestimates.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

A hierarchical Bayesian quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Salmonella in the sheep meat food chain

Rawson

2022

Food Microbiology

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

A hierarchical Bayesian quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Salmonella in the sheep meat food chain

Rawson

2022

Food Microbiology

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“…Several dose‒response models for NTS have been developed based on different types of data and assumptions. In the present study, the beta‐Poisson dose–response model from the FAO/WHO was employed to describe the probability of infection from an ingested dose D of NTS, as described by the following equation (FAO/WHO, 2002):

\begin{equation}{\rm{Pill}} = 1 - {\left(1 + \frac{D}{\beta }\right)^{( - \alpha )}},\end{equation}

where Pill represents the probability of illness for an individual exposed to a dose ( D ) and α and β are the parameters of the beta‐Poisson distribution, with α = 0.1324 and β = 51.45, respectively (Neves et al., 2018).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…where Pill represents the probability of illness for an individual exposed to a dose (D) and α and β are the parameters of the beta-Poisson distribution, with α = 0.1324 and β = 51.45, respectively (Neves et al, 2018).…”

Section: Dose-response Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment of nontyphoidal Salmonella in ground pork in households in Chengdu, China

et al. 2022

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Foodborne disease caused by nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) is one of the most important food safety issues worldwide. The objectives of this study were to carry out microbial monitoring on the prevalence of NTS in commercial ground pork, investigate consumption patterns, and conduct a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) that considers cross‐contamination to determine the risk caused by consuming ground pork and ready‐to‐eat food contaminated during food handling in the kitchen in Chengdu, China. The food pathway of ground pork was simplified and assumed to be several units according to the actual situation and our survey data, which were collected from our research or references and substituted into the QMRA model for simulation. The results showed that the prevalence of NTS in ground pork purchased in Chengdu was 69.64% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60.2–78.0), with a mean contamination level of −0.164 log CFU/g. After general cooking, NTS in ground pork could be eliminated (contamination level of zero). The estimated probability of causing salmonellosis per day was 9.43E‐06 (95% CI: 8.82E‐06–1.00E‐05), while the estimated salmonellosis cases per million people per year were 3442 (95% CI: 3218–3666). According to the sensitivity analysis, the occurrence of cross‐contamination was the most important factor affecting the probability of salmonellosis. To reduce the risk of salmonellosis caused by NTS through ground pork consumption, reasonable hygiene prevention and control measures should be adopted during food preparation to reduce cross‐contamination. This study provides valuable information for household cooking and food safety management in China.

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“…Havelaar and Swart (2014) analyzed the dose–response models in microbial risk assessment with a focus on the “missing link” between infection and illness; they observed that current microbial risk assessment models do not take into account acquired immunity which may lead to biased risk estimates. Therefore, the consumer model presents many challenges due to the high variability of the food handling behavior in domestic and commercial settings, because consumers' food safety practices cannot be enforced by legislation (MacRitchie, Hunter, & Strachan, 2014; Neves, Mungai, & Nauta, 2018) and lack of information related to previous exposures to low doses and acquired immunity. Another anticipated challenge for future risk assessment is the characterization of Campylobacter ‐associated human risk, which requires more research focusing on the dose–response models applicable to different consumers' groups ( e.g ., vulnerable populations) and the role and effects of acquired immunity in humans.…”

Section: The Disease Burden Of Campylobacter‐associated Human Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The European Union control strategy for Campylobacter spp. in the broiler meat chain

Nastasijević

Proscia

Bošković

et al. 2020

Journal of Food Safety

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Campylobacter is the most common cause of bacterial gastroenteritis worldwide and the most frequently reported foodborne pathogen in the European Union (EU). While campylobacteriosis is generally self-limiting, some patients could develop severe sequelae. The predominant source of infection is poultry. This review addresses the most relevant factors influencing the prevalence and contamination level of Campylobacter spp. in the poultry chain continuum. The emphasis was put on the novel control strategy for Campylobacter that is based on evidence-based risk assessment and the introduction of process hygiene criterion intended for monitoring the prevalence and counts of Campylobacter spp. on broiler carcasses at slaughter level. The reduction of Campylobacter spp. in the poultry meat chain in the EU can only be achieved with an integrated meat safety assurance approach. This includes primary interventions at the level of the poultry farm, implementation of effective control measures at slaughterhouses, and fostering awareness campaigns aimed at consumers. 1 | INTRODUCTION Campylobacter is the leading cause of zoonotic enteric infections worldwide and the most common cause of human food poisoning in

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Can stochastic consumer phase models in QMRA be simplified to a single factor?

Cited by 6 publications

References 30 publications

A hierarchical Bayesian quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Salmonella in the sheep meat food chain

A hierarchical Bayesian quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Salmonella in the sheep meat food chain

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment of nontyphoidal Salmonella in ground pork in households in Chengdu, China

The European Union control strategy for Campylobacter spp. in the broiler meat chain

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