Can Technological Development Compensate for the Unfavorable Impacts of Climate Change? Conclusions from 50 Years of Maize (Zea mays L.) Production in Hungary

Abstract

The goals of our study were to evaluate the historical aspects of maize (Zea mays L.) production in Hungary, and to provide a prognosis for the yield for 2050 based on the trends of temperature, precipitation, and climatic water balance changes. Different climate zones for the period of 1970–2019 were investigated by means of correlation analyses, normality tests, time series analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis. Two well-distinguishable linear trends in the yields were found, the first representing large-scale farming, and the second starting with the change of the socio-economic system in 1989. The annual amount of precipitation showed high variations both spatially and temporally, although no significant change was identified for the last five decades. In the period 1990–2019, not only were higher temperatures characteristic, but the frequency of extreme high temperature values (Tmax > 30 °C) also increased. We quantified the heat stress, expressing it in heat stress units (HSU, °C) derived from the heat-sum of the daily maximum air temperature values above 30 °C. By 2050, the average increase in HSUs may reach 35 °C. Increasing HSU causes yield depression; according to our estimations, a 1 °C increase in HSU results in a 23 kg ha−1 yield depression of maize. Taking the unfavorable effect of heat stress and technological development into consideration, the average domestic yield of maize will be 8.2 t ha−1. Our study revealed that without taking technological development into consideration, prediction models may overestimate the adverse effect of climate change on crop production.

Response of Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Yield to the Increasing Weather Fluctuations in a Continental Region of Four-Season Climate

“…Winter wheat production, as a considerable item in the national economy, reached its peak at the level of 6 million metric tons in the 1980s. Privatization of the land that started in 1989 had a negative effect on crop production, as discussed in our previous study [41], with winter wheat yields and production stability showing a significant decline. Recently, unfavorable conditions are partly compensated by the use of up-to-date varieties and hybrids that can be grown with high yield potential and good resistance against biotic and abiotic stresses.…”

“…In the CTED zone, the mean annual temperature is below 10 • C, while in the WTED zone, it is above 10 • C. The annual precipitation is less than the evapotranspiration in both zones. The locations of four selected regions with the relevant regional meteorological data assessed in this study were the same as given and described in our previous study on the performance of maize [41]. The Southeast region belongs to the category of WTED, the majority of the area of the Western region is covered by the CTED category, while the Southwest and the Eastern regions mostly fall into the WTED category, with some CTED (Figure 1).…”

“…In general, the difference among grain yield projection models in assumed temperature responses was proved to be the largest source of the uncertainty in simulated wheat yields [57]. In the case of the annual fluctuation of maize yield in Hungary, heat stress was a critical factor [41]. A statistical relationship was found between the heat stress and the winter wheat yield variance, too, but only for the period 1989-2019.…”

“…For future yield prediction, non-climatic influences and critical climatic factors were identified, and sensitivity in the phenological stages was considered. Based on our previous study conducted for maize [41], we assumed that in the investigated area, winter wheat grain yield is sensitive to changing sub-regional conditions in the long term, but the changes in the projected yields can show contradictory trends. Our objectives were the following:…”

Evaluation of new pivoting linear‐move precision irrigation machine

“…Especially in arid and semi-arid regions, drought and water scarcity due to climate change will be one of the major limiting cropping factors in agriculture; therefore, adequate water supply and optimal management of the available water resources are crucial in food production and security. The climate in Hungary is classified into warm temperate dry (WTED) and cold temperate dry (CTED) climate zones (Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS), 2019), where the annual precipitation is lower than the annual evapotranspiration (Huzsvai et al, 2020(Huzsvai et al, , 2022, resulting in the prevalence of drought, especially in July and August every 3 years. In recent decades, the intensity and frequency of droughts have increased from year to year in Hungary and also as at the experimental site of this study.…”