Can the COVID-19 Crisis be a Catalyst for Transition to Sustainable Urban Mobility? Assessment of the Medium- and Longer-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Mobility in Brussels

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate what the impact of the COVID-19 crisis was on travel patterns and how it could be a catalyst for the transition toward a more sustainable mobility system. To study this, we use the sustainable mobility framework of the 7A's, namely Awareness, Avoidance, Act and Shift, Anticipation of new technologies, Actor involvement, Acceleration, and Adaptation of behavior. For each of the first 5A's, we analyze the changes in mobility brought along in the different periods of the COVID-19 crisis. Our mixed methods approach includes a thematic analysis of online press articles and an analysis of traffic and passenger volume data in Brussels, Belgium. Our results show that the measures to stop the spread of the COVID-19 virus had significant consequences for mobility in Brussels by raising Awareness of the positive impacts reduced traffic can have on livability. The measures decreased travel demand (Avoidance) in general, but especially in the context of commuting and shopping trips which declined in favor of telework and online shopping. The majority of mobility measures that were implemented belong to the Act and shift category and they were especially aimed at promoting active mobility like walking. There was also a positive influence on the Anticipation of new technologies, as internal combustion engine sales dropped and electric vehicle sales increased. However, the data analysis also shows an incremental return to business-as-usual after the 2020 summer holidays. Parts of this can be linked back to a disregard of Actor involvement, resulting in a resistance from stakeholders to several of the measures. We conclude with recommendations based on Acceleration and Adaptation of behavior on how to support a sustainable transition and lasting behavioral change in the post-COVID era.

Evolution of urban mobility behaviour in Brussels as a result of the COVID‐19 pandemic

“…Aloi et al ( 2020 ), for example, analyse the effects of the lockdown in spring of 2020 for the City of Santander, Spain, reporting significant overall mobility decreases that were most severe for public transport. Macharis et al ( 2021 ) show this reduction of traffic during and right after the spring 2020 lockdown in Brussels, Belgium. Galeazzi et al ( 2021 ) show similar findings for France, Italy and the UK.…”

“…Metro was chosen to represent public transport as it was the mode that was the most strongly impacted by the crisis (Macharis et al, 2021 ). The data for metro are also more reliable than for ground transportation because metro occupancy is measured directly through the mandatory validation to enter the metro stations.…”

“…Weekend cycling, on the other hand, surged, increasing by 197%. After the lockdown, the strong increase in cycling continued, and road traffic started to return to pre‐COVID levels, while public transport occupancy rates increased more slowly (Macharis et al, 2021 ). Similarly, in July 2020, Apple Maps data showed a 16% increase in travel by car in the United States, and a 14% increase in Germany (Kakderi et al, 2021 ).…”

“…The ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic has severely challenged the resilience of cities across the globe. It has changed priorities, put lifestyles into question and raised awareness about alternative ways cities could be designed (Kakderi et al, 2021 ; Macharis et al, 2021 ). The long timeframe of the crisis means that human behaviours and routines are starting to change (Kakderi et al, 2021 ), as can be seen, for example, in the uptake of biking (König & Dreßler, 2021 ).…”

“…There is currently no agreement on when the pandemic will end (Zhang, 2020 ), and the question arises as to what long‐term behavioural changes will result from it, and therefore what role COVID‐19 can play in the transition towards sustainable urban mobility. Despite the fact that strict lockdowns around the world caused a sharp increase in mobility measures, like the implementation of new bike lanes or the pedestrianization of streets (EIT Urban Mobility, 2020 ), the rushed implementation has caused some stakeholders to push back (Macharis et al, 2021 ). Right after the strict lockdowns, a slow return to pre‐COVID mobility levels could be seen (Konecny et al, 2021 ).…”