Can the Middle East-North Africa region mitigate the rise of its food import dependency under climate change?

Mouël, Chantal Le; Forslund, Agneta; Marty, Pauline; Manceron, Stéphane; Marajo-Petitzon, Elodie; Caillaud, Marc-Antoine; Dumas, Patrice; Schmitt, Bertrand

doi:10.1007/s10113-023-02045-y

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 22 publications

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“…Recent studies have already highlighted the adverse effects of grain import dependency in MENA ( 16 , 17 ) and shown that it is expected to increase in the years ahead ( 18 ), potentially hindering the region’s ability to address its food insecurity. They have also highlighted the region’s vulnerability to trade disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 ( 19 , 20 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential consequences of grain-trade disruption on food security in the Middle East and North Africa region

Rahimi,

Smerald,

Moutahir

et al. 2023

Front. Nutr.

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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has seen remarkable population growth over the last century, outpacing other global regions and resulting in an over-reliance on food imports. In consequence, it has become heavily dependent on grain imports, making it vulnerable to trade disruptions (e.g., due to the Russia-Ukraine War). Here, we quantify the importance of imported grains for dietary protein and energy, and determine the level of import reductions at which countries are threatened with severe hunger. Utilizing statistics provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), we employed a stepwise calculation process to quantify the allocation of both locally produced and imported grains between the food and feed sectors. These calculations also enabled us to establish a connection between feed demand and production levels. Our analysis reveals that, across the MENA region, 40% of total dietary energy (1,261 kcal/capita/day) and 63% of protein (55 g/capita/day) is derived from imported grains, and could thus be jeopardized by trade disruptions. This includes 164 kcal/capita/day of energy and 11 g/capita/day of protein imported from Russia and Ukraine. If imports from these countries ceased completely, the region would thus face a severe challenge to adequately feed its population. This study emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks and ensure a stable food and feed supply in the MENA region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential consequences of grain-trade disruption on food security in the Middle East and North Africa region

Rahimi,

Smerald,

Moutahir

et al. 2023

Front. Nutr.

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Vulnerability, climate laws, and adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Maboudi,

D'Amico

2024

Env Pol Gov

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Laws aimed at tackling climate change problems have grown significantly in the last two decades. Following this global trend and under pressure from international institutions and lenders, both rich, oil exporting (i.e., major greenhouse gas [GHG] emitters) and poor, non‐oil rich (i.e., mostly vulnerable nations with lower shares of emission) states in the Middle East and North Africa have hastened to adopt new laws and regulations to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change. The question remains, however, does the adoption of these laws have any measurable impact on these nations' climate change performance? That is, to what degree do these laws have an impact on greenhouse gas emissions or adaptation capacity and readiness? Utilizing a panel data of 660 country‐year observations (22 countries over 30 years), our cross‐national statistical analysis shows that while climate change laws seem to have an impact on GHG emissions, they have so far failed to boost these nations' adaptation capacity. Our case study shows that oil politics and basic development objectives seem to be the key to this failure.

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Geopolitical risks and agricultural trade diversification in Southern Africa: Port‐level evidence from the Russia‐Ukraine war

Lim,

2024

J of Agr & App Econ Assoc

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With the spread of global agricultural value chains, international geopolitical risks often unintentionally trigger food insecurity in bystander countries. This study explores the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on wheat supplies in South Africa and their trade diversification. Using port‐level trade data, we show that South Africa, the main distribution route for South African wheat supplies, rapidly diversified its imports to mitigate geopolitical risk in the aftermath of the war. This sudden import diversification prevented the war‐induced decline on average wheat imports, yet it led to an increase in the volatility of annual imports. More importantly, the import diversification contributed to more secure wheat supplies for southern African landlocked countries that were heavily reliant on border imports from South Africa. Our study highlights that sourcing diversification in a country with well‐developed port infrastructure could be instrumental in stave off food insecurity in neighboring countries in times of geopolitical crises.

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Can the Middle East-North Africa region mitigate the rise of its food import dependency under climate change?

Cited by 5 publications

References 22 publications

The potential consequences of grain-trade disruption on food security in the Middle East and North Africa region

The potential consequences of grain-trade disruption on food security in the Middle East and North Africa region

Vulnerability, climate laws, and adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Geopolitical risks and agricultural trade diversification in Southern Africa: Port‐level evidence from the Russia‐Ukraine war

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