BackgroundTo examine the association between large choroidal signal hypertransmission ≥250 μm (LHyperT) on optical coherence tomography (OCT) with the risk of developing geographic atrophy (GA) and compare this risk with those associated with nascent geographic atrophy (nGA).MethodsTwo hundred and eighty eyes from 140 participants with bilateral large drusen and without late age‐related macular degeneration (AMD) or nGA at baseline underwent OCT imaging and colour fundus photography (CFP) at 6‐monthly intervals up to 5 years. OCT scans were graded for the presence of LHyperT and nGA, and CFPs were graded for the presence of GA.ResultsThe five‐year incidence of LHyperT and nGA were 37% and 27% respectively (p = 0.003), and the two‐year probability of their progression to GA were 17% and 40%, respectively (p = 0.002). LHyperT and nGA explained 81% and 91% of the variance in the time to develop GA, respectively (p = 0.032), and they were both associated with a significantly higher rate of GA development compared to eyes without these lesions (adjusted hazard ratio = 110.8 and 183.2, respectively; p < 0.001 for both).ConclusionsLHyperT and nGA were both high‐risk features for GA development, but the latter showed a higher rate of GA progression and explained a significantly greater proportion of the variance in the time to develop GA. As such, nGA may be a more robust surrogate endpoint than LHyperT for the conventional clinical endpoint of CFP‐defined GA for intervention trials in the early stages of AMD.