Can the Patient Influx at Mass Gatherings be Predicted? A First Attempt to Crunch the Numbers

Abstract

according to predefined eligibility criteria. Included items were read and results were compiled and summarized. Results: In a total of 64 included items, 34 were published between 2013-2016. The most studied events were Germany's Love Parade stampede in 2010 (n = 6) and the UK Hillsborough stadium stampede in 1989 (n = 4). The literature retrieved was from a wide range of different disciplines. Conflicting definitions of human stampedes were found. The common belief that they result from an irrational and panicking crowd has progressively been replaced by studies suggesting that successive systemic failures are the main underlying causes. Stampedes are not reported in global disaster databases, making unusual sources like news reports often the only information available. Prevention measures are to date mainly related to crowd management and venue design, but their effectiveness has not been studied. Best practices for preparedness and response are not consensual. Conclusion: Stampedes are a complex phenomenon that remains incompletely understood, hampering formulation of evidence-based strategies for their management. Many of the findings come from high-profile events and are difficult to extrapolate to other settings. More research from different disciplines is warranted to address these gaps in the knowledge in order to prevent and mitigate future events. A start would be to agree on a commonly accepted definition of stampedes. Study/Objective: To identify the epidemiological spread of athletes, the injuries and medical conditions they present with, to assess the level of preparedness and organization of the medical care at the event, and how the medical preparedness coped with the surge at the medical tent. Background: Marathons and ultra-marathons have become increasingly popular in Nigeria and other developing countries. Participants are more dedicated, investing time and effort to prepare and compete. As the field increases, so do the types of injuries and medical conditions that present to the medical tent on event day. As a result, a lot more goes into preparation and medical capacity for these events. Methods: A mass gathering matrix will be applied to the event demographics to assess the projected need for the event. Actual preparedness on the ground will be assessed and studied. All athletes entering the medical tent, picked up along the route, or taken directly to hospital will be triaged and a questionnaire applied to them. Results: Musculoskeletal injuries, dermatological, respiratory problems, collapse and hypotension have been shown to be common problems in marathon runners. The result should clarify, if this is so in marathons in Nigeria. Organization of medical coverage of these events needs to be well coordinated and staffed to be effective. The matrix will help organizers have a baseline or template for proper preparation. Conclusion: The epidemiology of marathon injuries may follow conventional events, but a proper understanding of this will aid proper preparation for the event and organiz...

Validation of a Belgian Prediction Model for Patient Encounters at Music Mass Gatherings

“…As the results of this study are consistent regarding the incidence of medical emergencies during MGs, the high number of potentially life-threatening conditions at EDMFs is striking. It is common knowledge that EDMF-festivalgoers engage more in alcohol and illicit drug use, 6,8,12,18 but the results above (75.7% of all life-threatening conditions) do raise concern. Future research should focus on PPR at EDMEs and the organization of in-event medical care at these events.…”

“…5 One of the persisting problems in the risk assessment of MGs is the absence of a valid predictive model of patient presentation rates (PPRs). [6][7][8] The prediction models most cited in MG literature are the models developed by Arbon 9 and Hartman. 10 The Arbon model is based on regression modelling, whereas the Hartman model starts on stratifying events based on certain characteristics.…”

“…It is welldocumented that music MGs (eg, concerts and raves) have a higher incidence of PPRs. 6,8,[11][12][13] The predominant cause of higher PPRs and transport-to-hospital rates (TTHRs) at music events is the consumption of alcohol and illicit drugs. 5,6,13 Studies among Belgian youth attending dance events, clubs, and rock concerts in the previous year show that 90% consumed alcohol, with up to 66% admitting to combining alcohol with illicit drug use.…”