Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policymakers?

Shvidenko, А.; Schepaschenko, Dmitry; McCallum, Ian; Nilsson, S.

doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9918-2

Cited by 48 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 37 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Recent studies tend to higher estimates, but also time series ) defined based on forest GIS at resolution of 1 km and regionally distributed multi-dimensional system of biomass extension factors (Schepaschenko et al, 2015a; available at http://Russia.geo-wiki.org. Detailed descriptions of the methods used for assessment of LB and other major ecological components of forest ecosystems, as well as their uncertainties, can be found in Shvidenko et al (2007bShvidenko et al ( , 2010 and Shvidenko and Schepaschenko (2014).…”

Section: Carbon Poolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Schaphoff

Reyer

Schepaschenko

et al. 2016

Forest Ecology and Management

Self Cite

110

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tRussia's boreal forests provide numerous important ecosystem functions and services, but they are being increasingly affected by climate change. This review presents an overview of observed and potential future climate change impacts on those forests with an emphasis on their aggregate carbon balance and processes driving changes therein. We summarize recent findings highlighting that radiation increases, temperature-driven longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations generally enhance vegetation productivity, while heat waves and droughts tend to decrease it. Estimates of major carbon fluxes such as net biome production agree that the Russian forests as a whole currently act as a carbon sink, but these estimates differ in terms of the magnitude of the sink due to different methods and time periods used. Moreover, models project substantial distributional shifts of forest biomes, but they may overestimate the extent to which the boreal forest will shift poleward as past migration rates have been slow. While other impacts of current climate change are already substantial, and projected impacts could be both large-scale and disastrous, the likelihood for a tipping point behavior of Russia's boreal forest is still unquantified. Other substantial research gaps include the large-scale effect of (climate-driven) disturbances such as fires and insect outbreaks, which are expected to increase in the future. We conclude that the impacts of climate change on Russia's boreal forest are often superimposed by other environmental and societal changes in a complex way, and the interaction of these developments could exacerbate both existing and projected future challenges. Hence, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for Russia's forests is strongly advised.

show abstract

Section: Carbon Poolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Schaphoff

Reyer

Schepaschenko

et al. 2016

Forest Ecology and Management

Self Cite

110

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The area also contains vast stores of fossil carbon. According to estimates of carbon fluxes and stocks in Russia made as part of a full carbon account by the land-ecosystem approach (Shvidenko et al, 2010;Schepaschenko et al, 2011;Dolman et al, 2012), terrestrial ecosystems in Russia served as a net carbon sink of 0.5-0.7 Pg(C) per year during the last decade. Forests provided above 90 % of this sink.…”

Section: Carbon Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX): towards a holistic understanding of the feedbacks and interactions in the land–atmosphere–ocean–society continuum in the northern Eurasian region

et al. 2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The northern Eurasian regions and Arctic Ocean will very likely undergo substantial changes during the next decades. The Arctic-boreal natural environments play a crucial role in the global climate via albedo change, carbon sources and sinks as well as atmospheric aerosol production from biogenic volatile organic compounds. Furthermore, it is expected that global trade activities, demographic movement, and use of natural resources will be increasing in the Arctic regions. There is a need for a novel research approach, which not only identifies and tackles the relevant multi-disciplinary research questions, but also is able to make a holistic system analysis of the expected feedbacks. In this paper, we introduce the research agenda of the Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX), a multi-scale, multi-disciplinary and international program started in 2012 (https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/). PEEX sets a research approach by which large-scale research topics are investigated from a system perspective and which aims to fill the key gaps in our understanding of the feedbacks and interactions between the land-atmosphereaquatic-society continuum in the northern Eurasian region. We introduce here the state of the art for the key topics in the PEEX research agenda and present the future prospects of the research, which we see relevant in this context.

show abstract

“…Error calculation of the different components was achieved by running a Monte Carlo analysis as described in Shvidenko et al (2010b).…”

Section: Land Ecosystem Assessment (Lea)mentioning

confidence: 99%

An estimate of the terrestrial carbon budget of Russia using inventory-based, eddy covariance and inversion methods

et al. 2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. We determine the net land to atmosphere flux of carbon in Russia, including Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, using inventory-based, eddy covariance, and inversion methods. Our high boundary estimate is −342 Tg C yr −1 from the eddy covariance method, and this is close to the upper bounds of the inventory-based Land Ecosystem Assessment and inverse models estimates. A lower boundary estimate is provided at −1350 Tg C yr −1 from the inversion models. The average of the three methods is −613.5 Tg C yr −1 . The methane emission is estimated separately at 41.4 Tg C yr −1 .These three methods agree well within their respective error bounds. There is thus good consistency between bottomup and top-down methods. The forests of Russia primarily cause the net atmosphere to land flux (−692 Tg C yr −1 from the LEA. It remains however remarkable that the three methods provide such close estimates (−615, −662, −554 Tg C yr −1 ) for net biome production (NBP), given the inherent uncertainties in all of the approaches. The lack of recent forest inventories, the few eddy covariance sites and associated uncertainty with upscaling and undersampling of concentrations for the inversions are among the prime causes of the uncertainty. The dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suggest a much lower uptake at −91 Tg C yr −1 , and we argue that this is caused by a high estimate of heterotrophic respiration compared to other methods.

show abstract

Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policymakers?

Cited by 48 publications

References 37 publications

Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX): towards a holistic understanding of the feedbacks and interactions in the land–atmosphere–ocean–society continuum in the northern Eurasian region

An estimate of the terrestrial carbon budget of Russia using inventory-based, eddy covariance and inversion methods

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About